2020 Daily Journal Annual Meeting Transcript

17 Apr 2022 in Article / Letters

I don’t play in a game where the other people are wise and I’m stupid. I look for a place where I’m wise and they’re stupid. And believe me, it works better.

2020 Daily Journal Annual Meeting Transcript

Charlie Munger: Welcome to the Catholic cathedral.

查理 · 芒格: 欢迎来到天主教大教堂。

This is the most amazing place. If some of you haven’t seen it you should go see it from the inside. It looks like hell from the outside but from the inside it’s a startlingly architectural work and it’s quite interesting. Our director Peter Kaufman is on the committee who runs the cathedral and if you want to be buried in the same column of the ashes of Gregory peck, he’ll arrange it for a $100,000. This is a very commercial crowd. You can’t even die without pain.

这是最神奇的地方。 如果你们中的一些人还没有看到它，你应该从里面去看看。 从外面看，它像地狱，但从内部看，它是一个令人吃惊的建筑工作，它是相当有趣的。 我们的导演彼得 · 考夫曼是大教堂管理委员会的成员，如果你想和格里高利 · 派克葬在一起，他可以给你10万美元。 这是一个非常商业化的群体。 你甚至不能没有痛苦地死去。

Okay, I have a script to go through and after we’re through this script, which take care of the formal business of the meeting, we’ll answer questions in the usual way - after one little brief explanation from the chairman.

好的，我有一个剧本要看，在我们看完这个剧本之后，会议的正式事务，我们将以通常的方式回答问题——在主席做一个简短的解释之后。

I want to first introduce the people who are here. I’m Charlie Munger, Chairman, and the other officers are Rick Guerin, Vice Chairman, Jerry Salzman, who really runs the place, Peter Kaufman, who many of you know. […] I can’t read very well but that’s a problem of age. [Continues] Gary Wilcox, Mary Conlan, our new director, and Michelle Stevens, Vice President of the Daily Journal. Michelle was the one that ran the foreclosure notice business who made all the money. She is a hero around here.

我想先介绍一下在座的各位。 我是主席查理 · 芒格，其他的官员是里克 · 格林，副主席，杰里 · 萨尔兹曼，这个地方的真正负责人，彼得 · 考夫曼，你们很多人都认识他。 我不能很好地阅读，但那是年龄的问题。 加里 · 威尔科克斯，我们的新主管玛丽 · 康兰，以及《每日日报》副总裁米歇尔 · 史蒂文斯。 米歇尔是经营止赎通知业务的人，赚了所有的钱。 她是这里的英雄。

This is our main financial accountants: Maryjoe Rodriguez, who is a pillar of the place and Vice President of the Daily Journal Technologies, Ellen Ireland, who has been here forever and is a mother pillar of the place, Ernest Miranda, Andy Richardson, Martin Cassis, and Guat Milner.

这是我们主要的财务会计师: Maryjoe Rodriguez，他是这个地方的支柱，也是 Daily Journal Technologies 的副总裁，Ellen Ireland，他一直在这里，也是这个地方的支柱，Ernest Miranda，Andy Richardson，Martin Cassis，和 Guat Milner。

Having fired two previous accountants, we really love these.

解雇了之前的两个会计师，我们真的很喜欢这些。

Accounting, by the way, is really difficult now. It’s not an easy profession, particularly at a place like this. Imagine whoever is auditing Boeing this year is earning his money. Can you imagine how hard that would be to do?

顺便说一下，会计学现在真的很难。 这不是一个简单的职业，尤其是在这样的地方。 想象一下，今年审计波音公司的人正在赚钱。 你能想象这有多难吗？

Formal Business 正式业务

I will now proceed to the formal business of the meeting and then go on to the questions.

我现在继续会议的正式事务，然后继续讨论问题。

If anybody has a proxy delivered, ignore it, because we got enough proxies anyway.

如果任何人有一个代理交付，忽略它，因为我们有足够的代理反正。

Ellen will you please report the number of shares presented at the meeting.

艾伦，请你报告一下在会议上提出的股票数量好吗。

[Recitation of shareholder attendance]

(召集股东出席会议)

Thank you. We will now proceed to the individual items.

谢谢。我们现在开始讨论个别项目。

The first order of business is the election of the Board of Directors. We have enough proxies to elect all Directors that we’ve named and I hereby declare them all elected.

第一件事是选举董事会成员。 我们有足够的代理人选举我们任命的所有董事，我在此宣布他们全部当选。

The number of shares voting in favor of the Directors is rather interesting. I do not lead the list and the single most useful person is place, Salzman, has the lowest number of votes. But I’m fighting to do as well as he does. Anyway, we all got practically the same number of votes.

投票支持董事会的股票数量相当有趣。 我没有领先的名单和最有用的人是地方，萨尔兹曼，有最低的票数。 但是我正在努力做得和他一样好。 不管怎样，我们得到的票数几乎相同。

It’s rather interesting: With some previous occasion, Price Waterhouse had fired somebody and so somebody came to the meeting and did a long diatribe against Price Waterhouse, our auditor. It was very humorous.

有趣的是: 普华永道以前曾解雇过一个人，所以有人来参加会议，对我们的审计师普华永道进行了长时间的抨击。 非常幽默。

Annual meetings are very peculiar in America. And of course, we now have the chief shareholder frankly of every big company in America as some index fund and it’s weird that the voting power of America goes so much to index fund operators. Nobody planned it. It just happened. And God knows what the consequences will be.

年会在美国是非常特殊的。 当然，坦率地说，我们现在有美国每一家大公司的主要股东，就像某种指数基金一样，奇怪的是，美国的投票权竟然如此大地转移到指数基金运营商手中。 没人计划这么做。 就这么发生了。 天知道会有什么后果。

Alright, the second proposal is the ratification of the selection of the independent public accountants. Again we have proxies for that and that is just passed.

好的，第二个建议是批准独立公共会计师的选拔。 同样，我们有这样的代理，刚刚通过。

The Auditing Committee of the Board of directors have selected Scott Milner be the accountants. We need a ratification of that and again we have enough proxies and that passes.

董事会审计委员会选定斯科特 · 米尔纳为会计师。 我们需要一个批准，我们再次有足够的代理，并通过。

The third proposal is to approve the amendment to the company’s Articles of Incorporation to adopt a majority vote standard for election of the Directors. The state of California asked us to pass this and so we’re passing it.

第三项建议是批准对公司章程的修订，以采用多数票选举董事的标准。 加利福尼亚州要求我们通过这项法案，所以我们就通过了。

The fourth proposal concerns the advisory vote on what Jerry’s salary is at and that also passes. If there ever was anybody who earns his pay around here it’s Jerry.

第四项提议是关于对杰里的工资水平进行咨询性投票，这项提议也获得通过。 如果说这里有谁能挣到他的薪水的话，那就是杰瑞了。

We need a motion to adjourn the meeting and go on to the questioning.. Is there a second?.. On favour?.. We are adjourned.

我们需要一项休会的动议，然后继续提问。 . 还有第二个吗？ . . 受宠若惊？ . . 休庭。

Charlie Munger Monologue Before Questions 问题前的独白

I will discuss briefly the state of affairs that’s reflected in our reports and then I will take questions.

我将简要讨论我们报告中反映的事态，然后回答提问。

This company of course started as a public notice rag which made money by doing public notices and morphed into a very successful legal daily newspaper which had a monopoly on publishing the opinions of all the appellate courts in California and every law firm had to buy it. It did a lot of other useful things and was a small but very profitable paper occupying an ideal niche.

这家公司起初当然是一家公告牌，靠做公告赚钱，后来发展成为一家非常成功的法律日报，垄断了加利福尼亚所有上诉法院的意见，每家律师事务所都不得不买下它。 它做了很多其他有用的事情，是一个小但非常有利可图的报纸占据了一个理想的利基。

Many of the newspapers in America had similar niches where they just made regular, substantial profits - a very easy, simple business to run.

美国的许多报纸都有类似的利基市场，他们只是在那里赚取固定的、可观的利润——这是一项非常容易、简单的业务。

Of course what’s happened is that technological change is destroying the daily newspapers in America including the little one’s like ours. The revenue goes away and the expenses remain and they’re all dying.

当然，现在发生的是技术变革正在摧毁美国的日报，包括像我们这样的小报。 收入没了，费用没了，他们都快死了。

Berkshire Hathaway owns - what - about a hundred of them, and truth of the matter is they’re all going to die and there’s nothing that can be done with good management to save them. It’s a sad thing because those newspapers was an accidental part of the government. They called them the fort of the state and each one had come into being sort of by accident of capitalism without any planning by the founding fathers. The people who ran them became very powerful people due to two great American institutions; one is nepotism and the other is monopoly.

伯克希尔·哈撒韦集团拥有大约100家这样的企业，而事实上，这些企业都将面临死亡，在良好的管理下，没有什么能够挽救它们。 这是一件可悲的事情，因为这些报纸是政府的一个偶然部分。 他们称之为国家的堡垒，每一个都是在没有任何开国元勋的计划下，由资本主义偶然形成的。 由于两个伟大的美国制度: 一个是裙带关系，另一个是垄断，管理他们的人变得非常有权势。

And all those nepotistic monopolists, many of whom drank too much, actually morphed into a function where they were more useful than our legislators. And of course we’re losing them all.

所有那些裙带关系垄断者，其中许多人喝得太多，实际上演变成一种功能，他们比我们的立法者更有用。 当然，我们正在失去他们。

What we get is these opinion services on TV that everybody watches where everybody believes some ridiculous version of things that’s led as much as anybody good. It’s not a good thing in America that we lose Newsweek-type magazines and all our daily newspapers and get back Rush Limbaugh and his ilk on the other side. That’s what’s happened and it’s a sad thing.

我们得到的是这些电视上的观点服务，每个人都在看，每个人都相信一些荒谬的事情，这些事情导致的结果和任何人都一样好。 在美国，我们失去了《新闻周刊》类型的杂志和所有的日报，却把拉什 · 林堡和他的同类从另一个方面找回来，这不是一件好事。 这就是发生的事情，这是一件悲哀的事情。

Nobody planned that we would have a Fourth Estate that really is a branch of the government that worked really well for us and that took pride in being accurate and so on. And nobody planned it would go away. It just happened.

没有人计划过我们会有一个真正的第四等级政府，它是政府的一个分支，为我们工作得非常好，并且以准确性等等为荣。 没有人计划它会消失。 就这么发生了。

Now, Daily Journal Corporation strangely is not going to disappear. If all our business fails, we still have a lot of marketable securities, so we’re going to do better than these other newspapers. I’m not counting the ones like the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times. There are a few that will survive no matter what, but basically they’re all going away. The Daily Journal is not going to go away and leave the shareholders with nothing because of our big marketable securities.

现在，《每日邮报》奇怪地不会消失。 如果我们所有的业务都失败了，我们还有很多有价证券，所以我们会比其他报纸做得更好。 我没有把《华尔街日报》和《纽约时报》算在内。 有一些无论如何都会存活下来，但基本上它们都会消失。 《每日日报》不会因为我们巨大的有价证券而消失，让股东们一无所有。

We also have a second business which we’re trying to use to replace the economic strength of the newspaper that is imperilled and that’s Journal Technologies. That is a computer software business that helps courts and government agencies replace human error-prone inefficient procedures with simpler and better procedures run by software. That is a very difficult business.

我们还有第二项业务，我们正试图用它来取代陷入困境的报纸的经济实力，那就是《期刊科技》。 这是一项计算机软件业务，帮助法院和政府机构用更简单、更好的软件程序取代容易出错的低效程序。 这是一件非常困难的事情。

Ordinary software, like the software a teacher uses to help teach a class or the software that’s used in accounting if you’re a dealer in Chevrolets or something, is a gold mine because it’s just standard and you crank it out and everybody uses it; it’s efficient.

普通的软件，比如老师用来帮助教课的软件，或者如果你是雪佛兰经销商或者其他什么公司的会计软件，是一座金矿，因为它是标准的，你制作出来，每个人都在使用它; 它很有效率。

What we’re doing is we’re servicing all these government departments of a lot of different kinds and they all have special requirements and they’re almost all quite bureaucratic, and they’re also political. It takes forever. They’re full of lawyers and consultants - the RFP process. So it’s a branch of the software that is intrinsically very, very difficult where everything takes forever, is very hard to do, and so on. A lot of people just totally avoid it for that reason. They just want to crank out a few bits of software and where just everything is on the cloud - whatever they do - and count the money.

我们所做的就是为各种各样的政府部门提供服务，他们都有特殊的要求，他们几乎都很官僚，他们也很政治化。 这需要很长的时间。 他们充满了律师和咨询顾问-招标过程。 所以这是软件的一个分支，本质上是非常非常困难的，所有的事情都要花费很长的时间，很难做到，等等。 很多人就是因为这个原因完全避开它。 他们只想开发一些软件，然后把所有的东西都放到云端——不管他们做什么——然后数钱。

Of course, we’re in a business where we need armies of people to help these courts all over the world automate probation officing work or court filings and so on.

当然，在我们所处的行业中，我们需要大批的人来帮助世界各地的法院自动化缓刑办公室工作或法院文件等等。

All this automation and effective software is all going to happen but it’s unbelievably difficult.

所有这些自动化和高效的软件都将实现，但是难以置信的困难。

An RFP involving a government and a bunch of consultants is intrinsically very, very difficult. You have to keep good nature, have huge patience, have huge talent, and you have to just keep rolling with it and then the money comes in slowly and has more bureaucracy. It’s very, very difficult.

一个涉及政府和一群咨询顾问的招标书本质上是非常非常困难的。 你必须保持良好的天性，有巨大的耐心，有巨大的天赋，你只需要不断地滚动，然后钱慢慢地进来，有更多的官僚机构。 这非常非常困难。

In spite of all these difficulties and the fact that everybody at the very top of this company is very old, we’ve done fairly well and don’t ask me why. It was kind of a miracle. A lot was done right just to make it to our present state. And it’s a big market, but it’s not going to be easy and it’s not going to be fast.

尽管有这些困难，尽管公司最高层的每个人都很老了，我们还是做得相当不错，不要问我为什么。 这真是个奇迹。 我们做了很多正确的事情，只是为了能够达到目前的状态。 这是一个巨大的市场，但不会很容易，也不会很快。

On the other hand, we all like the customers.

另一方面，我们都喜欢顾客。

I’ve fallen in love with the government of Australia. It’s just such nice people and I think it’s wonderful that Australia wants automated courts and it’s wonderful that they’re smart enough to hire us. Imagine hiring the little Daily Journal company for the courts of Australia. My guess is it’s all going to work for them and for us. It’s a miracle that they figured out this little company would be a pretty safe choice.

我爱上了澳大利亚政府。 我认为澳大利亚需要自动化法庭是件好事，他们聪明到可以雇佣我们。 想象一下为澳大利亚法庭雇佣一家小小的《每日日报》公司。 我的猜测是，这一切都将为他们和我们工作。 他们发现这个小公司会是一个相当安全的选择，这是一个奇迹。

I think that part of the reason we’ve been succesful is because so many of our competitors are so awful. So we don’t deserve as much credit as we’re climbing.

我认为我们之所以能够获得成功的部分原因是因为我们的许多竞争对手都很糟糕。 所以我们不应该得到和我们攀登一样多的荣誉。

It’s going to take a long, long time and it’s an everlasting struggle. It’s kind of fun to watch because we have the most unlikely cast of characters and a lot of them are quite successful.

这需要很长很长的时间，这是一个永恒的斗争。 这部电影看起来很有趣，因为我们有着最不可能的角色阵容，而且他们中的很多人都相当成功。

Jerry just made a big report to the Board of Directors. It’s just amazing the goodwill with which the people attack this very difficult work and just keep everlastingly at it. They have problems where they go around or somebody goes crazy and they tell them no.

杰瑞刚刚向董事会做了一个重要的报告。 令人惊讶的是，人们对这项艰巨的工作表现出的善意，并且坚持不懈地进行下去。 他们有问题，他们走来走去，或有人发疯，他们告诉他们不。

You know, there are many opportunities to do this wrong but I think it’s all going to happen and we may end up with a big share of it. But it’s all done where you shareholders will need a lot of patience. It’s really hard. This is not the easy part of the software business. This is more like trying to create another Price Waterhouse. That would be difficult and this is difficult. And, of course, we can’t guarantee that we will succeed but I consider it likely. I just think it will be slow and awful. I don’t anticipate any easy times for a long time but I suspect it will keep growing.

你知道，有很多机会做错这一点，但我认为这一切都会发生，我们可能最终有很大的份额。 但这些都是在你们股东需要极大耐心的情况下完成的。 真的很难。 这不是软件业务中容易的部分。 这更像是试图创造另一个价格水屋。 这将是困难的，这是困难的。 当然，我们不能保证我们会成功，但我认为很有可能。 我只是觉得这会很慢，很糟糕。 我不认为在很长一段时间内会有任何轻松的时期，但我怀疑它会继续增长。

Jerry, how well do you think we’re going to do in the next two or three years?

杰瑞，你认为我们在接下来的两三年里会做得多好？

Jerry Salzman: We certainly devoted a lot of energy and resources to Journal Technology. We have approximately 250 employees in Journal Technology and have offices here in Los Angeles, obviously, in Corona, because we acquired a company in 2013 with an office in Corona, California. We have an office in Logan, Utah, where we acquired a company there in 2013, and we have an officer in Denver because our original interest in this system of serving courts started because we’ve seen that the court of Los Angeles, the largest in the United States at least, had sufficient resources in a service provider. That’s how we got started in 1999.

杰瑞 · 萨尔兹曼: 我们确实为《科技期刊》投入了大量的精力和资源。 我们在 Journal Technology 有大约250名员工，在洛杉矶有办事处，很明显，在 Corona，因为我们在2013年收购了一家公司，在加利福尼亚州的 Corona 有一个办事处。 我们在犹他州的洛根市有一个办公室，2013年我们在那里收购了一家公司，我们在丹佛有一个办公室，因为我们最初对这个法院服务系统的兴趣开始于，我们看到洛杉矶法院，至少是美国最大的法院，在一个服务提供商那里有足够的资源。 1999年我们就是这样开始的。

We’re seeing lots of changes. Take for example in Los Angeles. Los Angeles now uses our system to do electronic filing. Attorneys do the filing electronically. If you go down to the courts in Los Angeles where people used to have to stand in line or have a service provider stand in line on behalf of the lawyers, there’s nobody there. Also in conjunction with LA, we’re able to enable lawyers to determine when they would come to court and see the judge. So, attorneys are now setting their own schedule and that reduces some of the personnel requirements at the court. These are some of the innovations that are taking place.

我们看到了很多变化。 以洛杉矶为例。 洛杉矶现在使用我们的系统进行电子文件归档。 律师通过电子方式进行文件归档。 如果你去洛杉矶的法院，那里的人们过去必须排队，或者让服务提供商代表律师排队，那里没有人。 同时与洛杉矶合作，我们可以让律师决定他们什么时候来法庭见法官。 因此，律师们现在正在制定他们自己的时间表，这减少了法庭上的一些人事要求。 这些是正在发生的一些创新。

If, for example, you get a traffic ticket in the Riverside, you’re using our system to pay for that. So drive fast through riverside.

举个例子，如果你在 Riverside 得到一张交通罚单，你用我们的系统来支付。 所以开车快速通过河边。

And we make some good inroads into other California courts. We have one basic system and we have three, four, or five different configurations of the system; one for courts, one for public defenders, one for district attorneys, and one for probation officers.

我们在其他加州法院也取得了不错的进展。 我们有一个基本的系统，我们有三个、四个或五个不同的系统配置; 一个用于法院，一个用于公设辩护人，一个用于地区检察官，一个用于缓刑监督官。

So, we have to only modify one system and make sure the configuration of the main system is appropriate for other agencies. This is big advantage when we come to the point of doing installations.

因此，我们只需要修改一个系统，并确保主系统的配置适合其他机构。 这是一个很大的优势，当我们开始安装的时候。

And Charlie mentioned the people in the projects at the government of Australia. We now have four, five, six, or seven people down in Australia and we work for the state of South Australia and Victoria at the present time, which is Melbourne. So we have all the courts in those two states and they range from mineral courts to other types of courts that we sometimes don’t see here.

查理提到了澳大利亚政府项目中的人。 我们现在在澳大利亚有四个、五个、六个或七个人，目前我们在南澳大利亚州和维多利亚州工作，那就是墨尔本。 所以我们有这两个州的所有法院，从矿产法院到其他类型的法院，我们有时在这里看不到。

In Los Angeles, California, each county only has one court. If you went to other states you’d find that there was a probate court, a civil court, a family law court, and on and on.

在加利福尼亚州的洛杉矶，每个县只有一个法庭。 如果你去其他州，你会发现有遗嘱认证法庭、民事法庭、家庭法庭等等。

In California, they’re much more efficient than you can imagine when it comes to comparison where they have all the administrators - four or five administrators - and separate systems and separate IT departments. Very inefficient. That’s what we are confronted with all the time.

在加利福尼亚州，当比较所有的管理员——四到五个管理员——以及单独的系统和单独的 IT 部门时，它们的效率比你想象的要高得多。 非常低效。 这就是我们一直面临的问题。

As we move forward, the financial results will depend upon the number of users in these various justice agencies.

随着我们前进，财务结果将取决于这些不同司法机构的用户数量。

Yes, we do get implementation fees but we can only take that into income when everything is delivered. So, we focus on trying to get to the point where everything is delivered and then we can take it into income and reflected in the financial statements.

是的，我们确实收取执行费，但是我们只能在所有东西都交付之后才能将其计入收入。 因此，我们专注于努力达到所有东西都交付的地步，然后我们可以将其计入收入，并反映在财务报表中。

Charlie Munger: This is a very important thing that everyone in this room should understand.

查理 · 芒格: 这是一件非常重要的事情，这个房间里的每个人都应该明白。

We have no simple way of just counting up ours and sending little invoices to the government. That’s what most consultants like to do; bill hours. We don’t get the right to collect money until the thing works and we do that on purpose.

我们没有一个简单的方法来计算我们的账单，然后把小发票寄给政府。 这就是大多数咨询顾问喜欢做的事情: 按小时收费。 我们没有权利收钱，直到事情发生，我们故意这样做。

It reminds me of one of my favorite tales which really happened.

这让我想起了我最喜欢的一个故事。

When I was young, a lot of the earthmoving was not done with bulldozers. It was done by teams of mules who were guided by contractors who ran these mule teams and their big plows that they use. And there was a Latino contractor who had an enormous number of mules, and when the war came the big builder came in and said: “I’ve got a plus-cost contract with the government and I’m going to make you cost-plus. I want your mules to start tomorrow morning on this big project.” The owner of the mules said, “I can’t do that.” The big builder asked: “Why not?” and the contractor said: “I get business all these years because I’m so efficient. But when I take a cost-plus contract even my mules seem to know it and they all go to hell.”

当我年轻的时候，很多土方工程都不是用推土机完成的。 这是由一队队的骡子完成的，他们在承包商的引导下，负责赶骡队和他们使用的大犁。 有一个拉丁美洲的承包商，他有大量的骡子，当战争来临时，那个大的建筑商走进来说: “我和政府签订了一个加成本合同，我要让你的成本加成。 我希望你的骡子明天早上就开始干这个大项目。” 骡子的主人说: “我不能这么做。” 大建筑商问: “为什么不呢? ” 承包商说: “这些年我一直在做生意，因为我效率很高。 但当我接受一份成本加成的合同时，就连我的骡子似乎也知道这一点，于是它们全都见鬼去吧。”

And that’s the Daily Journal’s policy. We’re trying to avoid deteriorating by taking this awful contracting course. We’re trying to be good like that Latino contractor. My guess is it’s going to work but you have to be very cheerful to take it because it’s agony.

这就是《每日日报》的政策。 我们试图通过这种可怕的收缩方式来避免恶化。 我们要像那个拉丁裔承包商一样好。 我的猜测是，它将工作，但你必须非常高兴采取它，因为它的痛苦。

I can’t tell you how the people like Microsoft and Google don’t want our branch of the software business. I kind of like it. Peter kind of likes it. Peter likes it difficult if he thinks he will keep it forever once he gets it. That’s our system. But I sure can’t guarantee it’s going to work. It’s a lot of very difficult work.

我无法告诉你为什么像微软和谷歌这样的人不想要我们的软件分公司。 我挺喜欢的。 彼得有点喜欢。 如果彼得认为一旦他得到它就会永远保存下去，那他就很难做到。 这就是我们的系统。 但我肯定不能保证它会起作用。 这是一项非常困难的工作。

I would like to tell you that we’re just ass-deep in talent and we have four qualified people for every job, but we’re just the opposite. We’re like a bunch of one-armed paper hangers and so far it’s working.

我想告诉你们的是，我们只是人才济济，每个工作都有四个合格的人才，但我们恰恰相反。 我们就像一群只有一只手的纸衣架，到目前为止还能用。

What’s happened in America, of course, is that software has grown enormously. If you take every big college in the engineering department, the most popular course is computer science. If you went to venture capital, the most popular investment is software.

当然，在美国发生的事情是，软件发展了巨大的增长。 如果你选择工程系的每一所大学，最受欢迎的课程是计算机科学。 如果你投资风险投资，最受欢迎的投资是软件。

I do not find venture capital’s backing of software companies pretty because there’s just so much of it and there’s some wretched excess in following high prices and so on. It’s not a scene that attracts a normal Berkshire Hathaway type.

我不觉得风险投资对软件公司的支持很好，因为它的数量实在太多了，而且随着高价等等，还有一些可怜的过剩。 这不是一个吸引普通伯克希尔·哈撒韦的场景。

I’m not saying it won’t work for a great many of the very well but there’s also going to be a lot of casualties.

我并不是说这种方法不适用于大部分的油井，但是也会有大量的伤亡。

And I don’t like when investment bankers talk about EBITDA which I would translate as bullshit earnings.

我不喜欢投资银行家谈论 EBITDA，我会把它翻译成胡说八道的收益。

And I don’t like all those talks about J-curves and these private sales of software companies. It looks like a daisy-chain to me. So I think there’s a lot of wretched excess in it but it reflects an underlying sound development which is this huge growth of software changing the technology of the world. But it’s going to have some unpleasant consequences because there’s so much wretches excess in it.

我不喜欢那些关于 j 曲线和软件公司的私人销售的讨论。 在我看来它就像一个雏菊花环。 所以我认为有很多不幸的过剩，但它反映了一个潜在的健全的发展，这是软件的巨大增长，改变了世界的技术。 但是它会有一些不愉快的后果，因为有太多的可怜人过度。

Practically everybody in this room has someone in software in the family. I got two people in private equity in my family and private equity has grown into the trillions. Of course it’s a very peculiar development because there’s a lot of promotion a lot of crazy buying.

实际上在这个房间里的每个人家里都有软件方面的人。 我家里有两个私募股权投资者，私募股权投资已经增长到万亿美元。 当然，这是一个非常特殊的发展，因为有很多促销和疯狂的购买。

It’s what I call fee-driven buying, much of it, where people are buying things to get the fees.

这就是我所说的费用驱动型购买，大多数情况下，人们通过购买东西来获得费用。

As the owner, I’m not thinking about scraping fees off along the way so it makes me very nervous to have all this fee-driven buying.

作为所有者，我不会考虑一路削减费用，所以这让我非常紧张，所有这些费用驱动的购买。

And whenever they’re successful, they just raise a fund that’s twice as big as the last one and throw more money at more deals. And of course with more money and more overhead, it’s an end in demand for fees.

不管他们什么时候成功了，他们只需要筹集一个比上一个大两倍的基金，然后把更多的钱投入到更多的交易中。 当然，随着资金的增加和管理费用的增加，对学费的需求也会减少。

But will the world provide wonderful results for all these people?

但是，这个世界会给所有这些人带来美好的结果吗？

The answer is no, it won’t. It’s going to be a lot of tragedy.

答案是不，不会的。 这将是一个巨大的悲剧。

In the past, the people who did well in venture capital were the clients of Sequoia which is one of the best venture firms that ever existed in the history of the earth. But there aren’t that many Sequoias.

在过去，在风险投资方面做得很好的人是红杉资本的客户，红杉资本是世界历史上最好的风险投资公司之一。 但是没有那么多红杉。

Sequioa had such a wonderful record because it kept itself small and now everybody is trying to be enormously large and to grow enormously and hire more and more people, and collect more and more fees. It’s weird and it’s not going to work perfectly.

红杉公司之所以有如此出色的业绩记录，是因为它一直保持着自己的小规模，而现在每个人都在努力变得非常庞大，大规模增长，雇佣越来越多的人，收取越来越多的费用。 这很奇怪，而且不会完美地运作。

I’m trying to give you the same service my old Harvard Law professor gave me when he said: “Tell me what your problem is and I’ll try and make it more difficult for you.”

我试图给你们提供同样的服务，我的老哈佛法学教授曾对我说: “告诉我你们的问题是什么，我会尽力让你们更难受。”

By the way, the guy who told me that was doing me a favour. It’s a pretty good way to proceed.

顺便说一句，那个告诉我的人是在帮我的忙。 这是一个非常好的方法。

I have this saying that “a problem thoroughly understood is half solved.” It’s hard to understand it well.

我有这样一句话: “彻底了解一个问题就是解决了一半。” 很难理解清楚。

Well, I guess that’s enough for the Daily Journal - you’re in for a long, difficult ride. And not only that: The damn leaders look like an old people’s home.

嗯，我想这对《每日日报》来说已经足够了——你将面临一段漫长而艰难的旅程。 不仅如此，这些该死的领导人看起来就像一个老人之家。

I’m 96, Rick is 90, our CEO is 80. I mean, if you’re not the crapper, you don’t belong here.

我96岁，瑞克90岁，我们的 CEO 80岁。 我的意思是，如果你不是厕所，你就不属于这里。

I think we will gradually work things out in spite of this agent group of Directors. After all, we got a young man like Wilcox who’s past retirement age. And we got a new Director, Mary Conlan, who’s up here partly to make the rest of us look good, or bad rather.

我想尽管有这个董事会的代理人，我们还是会逐渐解决问题的。 毕竟，像威尔科克斯这样的年轻人已经过了退休年龄。 我们有了一个新的导演，玛丽康兰，她在这里部分是为了让我们其他人看起来好，或坏，更确切地说。

It is always odd results in capitalism. It is peculiar that one little newspaper full of marketable securities and is probably not dying and may actually succeed in the business none of the people understood. None of the people I named is a computer software engineer. It’s weird. And yet you people have come from all over the world to this place - you’re as nutty as we are.

资本主义的结果总是很奇怪。 奇怪的是，一份小小的报纸充斥着有价证券，而且很可能还没有消亡，实际上却可能在业务上取得成功，没有人能够理解。 我提到的人都不是计算机软件工程师。 很奇怪。 然而你们这些人从世界各地来到这个地方——你们和我们一样疯狂。

If you ask me, I think it’s slightly more likely to work than not work. And it’s a very good thing to be doing. The world needs what we’re trying to do. We’re trying to reward the right people and really trying to serve the customers.

如果你问我，我认为这比不工作更有可能起作用。 这是一件非常好的事情。 这个世界需要我们正在做的事情。 我们正在努力奖励合适的人，并真正努力为客户服务。

When it comes to customers, my ambition is to be as close to Costco as I can possibly be.

说到顾客，我的目标是尽可能接近好市多。

I’ve never been associated with a company that works harder than Costco to make sure the customers are served well. I mean I just love success that occurs this way and I hate success where you’re deliberately trying to cheat people or something that’s not good for them, like gambling service in Las Vegas.

我从来没有遇到过比好市多更努力工作以确保顾客得到良好服务的公司。 我的意思是，我就是喜欢这样的成功，我讨厌那种故意欺骗别人或者对他们不利的成功，比如拉斯维加斯的赌博服务。

By the way, I’m not trying to irritate our customers in Las Vegas. I’m doing it by accident.

顺便说一句，我不是想激怒我们在拉斯维加斯的客户。 我这样做纯属偶然。

Anyway, I do think there’s something to be said that you have the option for selling stuff that’s good for people instead of stuff that tricks them. That’s our approach and I would choose that approach even if I made less money. In fact, I think you make more.

不管怎样，我确实认为有些事情值得说明，你可以选择销售对人们有益的东西，而不是欺骗他们的东西。 这就是我们的方法，即使我赚的钱少了，我也会选择这种方法。 事实上，我认为你赚得更多。

It reminds me of Warren Buffett’s favorite saying: “You should always take the high road because it’s less crowded.” That’s the system.

这让我想起了沃伦•巴菲特(Warren Buffett)最喜欢的一句话: “你应该总是走大路，因为那里不那么拥挤。” 这就是体制。

I think the politics of the country is weirdly awful because of the excesses of hatred that you see everywhere. In California, with a gerrymandered House of Representatives, the only danger of getting tossed out of legislature is if you’re a leftist and someone to the left of you may come in and if you’re a rightist and someone to the right of you may come into the primary.

我认为这个国家的政治是古怪而可怕的，因为到处都可以看到无节制的仇恨。 在加利福尼亚州，众议院存在重新划分选区的做法，被赶出立法机关的唯一危险是，如果你是左派，你左边的某个人可能会进来，如果你是右派，你右边的某个人可能会进入初选。

This creates an awful Legislature where the individuals hate each other. And there may would be ten sort of sensible Republicans and ten kind of sensible Democrats in the California Legislature. And every ten years, these nutcases of the right and left get together and throw all the sensible people out, or gerrymandering them out, because they all agree that within their own party the middlers are horrible. That is a crazy way to be governed. It is not pretty and I have no solution. It’s just interesting.

这就产生了一个糟糕的立法机构，每个人都互相憎恨。 在加利福尼亚州的立法机构里，可能会有十个理智的共和党人和十个理智的民主党人。 每隔十年，这些左派和右派的疯子就会聚在一起，把所有明智的人赶出去，或者把他们划分选区，因为他们都认为，在他们自己的党内，中间派是可怕的。 这是一种疯狂的治理方式。 这并不好看，我也没有解决办法。 这很有趣。

Warren said to me the other day: “It’s so interesting now. I would like to stick around for another 30 years if I couldn’t participate. If I could just watch.” And I said, “I would like to sign up for that too. It is very interesting.”

有一天，沃伦对我说: “现在很有趣。 如果我不能参加的话，我想再呆30年。 如果我能看的话。” 我说: “我也想报名参加。 这非常有趣。”

It’s weird. Think about how different television is when Cronkite is gone and we have all these clowns and the opinion servers lying to us in a very shrewd way. They’re really good at it.

很奇怪。 想象一下，当克朗凯特离开后，电视台是多么的不同，我们看到所有这些小丑和舆论服务器以一种非常精明的方式对我们撒谎。 他们真的很擅长这个。

You know, the ability to mislead people is greatly underestimated.

你知道，误导别人的能力被大大低估了。

Any good magician can make anybody see a lot of things happening without happening and not see a lot of things happening that are happening.

任何一个好的魔术师都可以让任何人看到很多事情发生而不会发生，而不会看到很多事情正在发生。

And, of course, we’re all dealing with various people who through practice of evolution have been good at misleading us. So it’s very, very hard to be rational and stay sane.

当然，我们都在和各种各样的人打交道，他们通过进化的实践善于误导我们。 所以要保持理智和清醒是非常非常困难的。

Of course, that’s some of the reasons why some of the companies that I’ve been affiliated with have been so successful. It’s not that we’re so smart. It’s that we stayed sane. Because a lot of what goes on is absolutely nuts.

当然，这也是为什么我曾经合作过的一些公司如此成功的部分原因。 不是因为我们太聪明。 而是我们保持了理智。 因为很多事情都是疯狂的。

We all see it in politics, of course. It’s even sillier than it is in business, although sometimes we businessmen try and get into our share of stupidity.

当然，我们都在政治中看到了这一点。 这比做生意还要愚蠢，尽管有时候我们商人会尝试去分享我们的愚蠢。

You people come from all over the world to this thing out of some hunger. I regard you as nerds because I was once one of you, and I know a nerd when I see one.

你们这些人从世界各地来到这里是因为饥饿。 我认为你们是书呆子，因为我曾经是你们中的一员，我一眼就能看出你们是书呆子。

You come here because some fellow nerd managed to succeed in spite of defects and you need a similar result.

你来到这里，是因为有些书呆子同事尽管有缺陷，但还是成功了，而你需要一个类似的结果。

And you know something that’s really odd? It’s that you’re right. If you can learn some of our tricks, you can get more success out of life than you deserve. That’s what has happened to me.

你知道有件事很奇怪吗？ 而是你是对的。 如果你能学会我们的一些技巧，你就能从生活中得到比你应得的更多的成功。 这就是发生在我身上的事。

How did it happen? I tell you how it happened.

怎么发生的? 我告诉你怎么发生的。

It’s obvious that I got better life outcomes than I deserved based on energy or intellect. Of course, it’s an interesting process that everybody would like more of. Who doesn’t like to get a lot more than one deserves?

很明显，基于能量和智力，我得到了比我应得的更好的生活结果。 当然，这是一个有趣的过程，每个人都会更喜欢。 谁不喜欢得到比应得的更多的东西呢？

I stumbled into a few mental tricks early in life and I just used them over and over again. I take the high road because it’s less crowded. Of course, that’s a smart thing to do.

我在生命早期偶然发现了一些精神上的把戏，我只是一遍又一遍地使用它们。 我选择公路，因为那里不那么拥挤。 当然，这是明智之举。

Then I was raised by people who thought it was a moral duty to be as rational as you could possibly make yourself. That notion which was just inherited, basically, from my upbringings and my surroundings has served me enormously well.

然后我被那些认为尽可能理性是一种道德责任的人抚养长大。 这个概念基本上是从我的成长经历和周围的环境中继承下来的，对我非常有帮助。

It’s like Kipling’s: If you can keep your head when all round you are losing theirs, it’s a big advantage. Just think of all the dumb things that are done by our politicians and our business leaders, and the wretched excess you see in the system.

这就像吉卜林说的: 如果你能在周围的人都失去理智的时候保持冷静，这将是一个巨大的优势。 想想我们的政治家和商业领袖做的所有愚蠢的事情，以及你在这个体系中看到的可怜的过度。

I can remember one of the earlier crazy booms that caused one of our earlier recessions. All these traders would go to Las Vegas and people would hand them free stacks of they would have strippers - that was our securities market. I mean, it was grossly awful and a lot goes on now that is grossly awful.

我还记得导致我们早期经济衰退的早期疯狂的繁荣。 所有这些交易员都会去拉斯维加斯，人们会免费给他们一堆脱衣舞娘——这就是我们的证券市场。 我的意思是，这是非常可怕的，现在发生的很多事情都是非常可怕的。

Imagine politicians who never understood Adam Smith. It would be like hiring an engineer to design your airplane and he didn’t believe in gravity.

想象一下那些从来不理解亚当 · 斯密的政客们。 这就像雇佣一个工程师来设计你的飞机，而他却不相信重力。

I laughed too, but there are tears in my laughter.

我也笑了，但笑声中有泪水。

This business of being determinedly rational does work. You should keep everlastingly at it.

这种坚定理性的行为是有效的，你应该永远坚持下去。

One of the things that’s wrong with the present system is the way their heads get cabbaged up by the activity and the owners of the head don’t know what’s happening.

目前系统的问题之一就是他们的头部被活动抬高的方式，而头部的主人不知道发生了什么。

One of my favourite actors when I was young, Mr. Cedric Hardwicke, was such a good British actor he was knighted by his monarch. Sir Cedric Hardwicke got old and he kept acting right - on and on. Until towards the end of his life he made one of the great statements in the history of acting. He said: “I have been a great actor for so long that I no longer know what I truly think on any subject.”

我年轻时最喜欢的演员之一，塞德里克 · 哈德威克先生，是一位非常优秀的英国演员，他被国王封为爵士。 塞德里克 · 哈德维克爵士变老了，他的行为一直很正常。 直到他生命的最后一刻，他做出了演艺史上最伟大的宣言之一。 他说: “长久以来，我一直是一个伟大的演员，以至于我不再知道自己在任何主题上的真实想法。”

If you stop to think about it, that’s exactly what’s happened to most of our politicians expect they don’t know it. Sir Cedric Hardwicke at least knew his brain has been turned to cabbage, whereas our politicians like cabbage.

如果你停下来想一想，这正是发生在我们大多数政客身上的事情，他们希望自己不知道。 塞德里克 · 哈德维克爵士至少知道自己的大脑已经变成了卷心菜，而我们的政客却喜欢卷心菜。

For all the young people that want to shout out their resentment of this and that - I always say that what they’re doing is pounding it in. Nobody’s listening to them when they shout out. They’re just pounding a lot of nonsense in.

对于所有那些想要大声说出他们对这个或那个的不满的年轻人，我总是说他们所做的就是猛击它。 当他们大喊大叫的时候，没有人在听。 他们只是在灌输一些无意义的东西。

It’s a big mistake to pretend to practically anything because you become what you pretend to be.

因为你变成了你假装的样子而假装实际上是一个大错误。

Now, sometimes that works. I knew a couple of no good Nicks in my youth who became leading philanthropists. They did it just to mislead people but after they had done it for a while, they became legitimate philanthropists. It always gave me the conclusion that hypocrisy really is better than most people think.

现在，有时候这样做是有效的。 在我年轻的时候，我认识几个不怎么好的尼克斯，他们后来成了主要的慈善家。 他们这样做只是为了误导人们，但是在他们这样做了一段时间之后，他们变成了合法的慈善家。 它总是给我一个结论: 虚伪真的比大多数人想象的要好。

It does change you to constantly pretend one thing and another. It changes you to say something repeatedly. I always felt that Ronald Reagan who Shifted from Democrat to Republican - his acting career failed. And he was hired by General Electric to tour around and give right-wing speeches.

它确实改变了你不断地假装一件事和另一件事。 重复说一些事情会改变你。 我一直觉得从民主党转向共和党的罗纳德 · 里根的演艺生涯是失败的。 他受雇于通用电气(General Electric) ，到处巡回演讲，发表右翼言论。

In a world where that’s the way your mind tricks you - of course, if you have some prophylactic measures where you’re more cautious about your views - think about how we’d all love to have a bunch of children where we’re a little more cautious about their views.

在这样一个世界里，你的大脑就是这样欺骗你的——当然，如果你有一些预防措施，你会对你的观点更加谨慎——想想我们是多么希望有一群孩子，我们对他们的观点更加谨慎。

I’ve got some children in the audience. They’re by and large a pretty good bunch but if I had my druthers, there’s a thing or two I would change. You laugh but that’s the way life works.

我的观众里有几个孩子。 总的来说，他们是一群不错的人，但是如果我有我的选择，我会改变一两件事情。 你笑了，但生活就是这样。

Imagine coming to listen to some 96 year-old man. Amazing.

想象一下来听一个96岁的老人的演讲，太神奇了。

I’ll take questions now from anybody.

现在我将回答任何人的问题。

Questions 问题

Question: In the past, you’ve referred to value investors as a group of cod fishermen and suggested that they’d maybe fish in a different pond. Conversely, you’ve also discussed how over a long enough time frame an investor’s realised return would mirror the business’s return. So given that many of the highest quality businesses are in the U.S., wouldn’t some of our time be best focused on analyzing the quality of the businesses here in the U.S.? I understand that the odds offered on the bet matters a lot so I’d be curious to hear in your mind how you weigh the quality of the horse versus the odds offered on the horse. Thank you.

问题: 在过去，你提到价值投资者是一群鳕鱼渔民，并建议他们可能会在另一个池塘捕鱼。 相反，你也讨论过，在一个足够长的时间框架内，投资者实现的回报将如何反映企业的回报。 因此，鉴于许多高质量的企业都在美国，难道我们不应该把时间花在分析美国企业的质量上吗？ 我知道这个赌注的赔率很重要，所以我很想知道你是如何权衡这匹马的质量和这匹马的赔率的。 谢谢你。

Charlie Munger: Well, both are important. But basically, all investment is value investment in the sense that you’re always trying to get better prospects than you’re paying for.

查理 · 芒格: 两者都很重要。 但基本上，所有的投资都是价值投资，因为你总是试图得到比你付出的更好的前景。

But you can’t look everywhere at once any more than you can run a marathon in twelve different states at once.

但是你不可能同时看到所有的地方，就像你不可能同时在十二个不同的州跑马拉松一样。

So you have to have some system of picking some place to look which is your hunting ground - but you’re looking for value in every case.

因此，你必须有一些系统，挑选一些地方，看看哪里是你的狩猎场-但你寻找的价值在每一个情况下。

What is interesting to me is I don’t agree with you. I think the strongest companies are not in America. I think the Chinese companies are stronger than ours and they’re growing faster.

我感兴趣的是我不同意你的意见。 我认为最强的公司不在美国。 我认为中国的公司比我们的更强大，而且他们发展得更快。

I have investments in them and you don’t. And I’m right and you’re wrong.

我在他们身上有投资而你没有。 我是对的，你是错的。

Well, you can laugh but I just spoke a simple truth.

好吧，你可以笑，但我只是说了一个简单的事实。

Li Lu is here. I just saw his face in the audience. He’s the most successful investor in the whole damn room. Where does he invest? China. And boy was he smart to do that.

李路来了。 我在观众席上看到了他的脸。 他是整个房间里最成功的投资者。 他在哪里投资？ 中国。 他这么做真是聪明。

Is he good at it? It really helps if you know which hunting ground to look in. In fact, we all do better when we go hunting where the hunting is easy.

他擅长这个吗？ 如果你知道在哪个狩猎区域寻找猎物，这真的很有帮助。 事实上，当我们去那些容易打猎的地方打猎时，我们都会做得更好。

I have a friend who’s a fisherman. He says: “I have a simple rule for success in fishing. Fish where the fish are.”

我有个朋友是渔夫。 他说: “我有一个成功捕鱼的简单规则。 有鱼的地方就有鱼。”

You want to fish where the bargains are. It’s that simple.

你想在便宜的地方钓鱼，就这么简单。

If the fishing is really lousy where you are, you should probably look for another place to fish.

如果你所在的地方的渔业真的很糟糕，你可能应该找另一个地方去捕鱼。

Question: Over the years, you’ve shared lots of comments about India and China. I would love to hear any and all insights you have about you’re friendly neighbors to the north. Whether it’s the Canadian political system, banking system, housing sector, resources industry, health care system - any and all insights and wisdom on Canada would be much appreciated.

问: 这些年来，你们分享了很多关于印度和中国的评论。 我很想听听你们对北方友好邻居的看法。 无论是加拿大的政治体系、银行体系、住房部门、资源产业、医疗保健体系——任何关于加拿大的见解和智慧都将受到赞赏。

Charlie Munger: Well I’m glad you give me this opportunity. I’m very partial to Canada.

查理 · 芒格: 我很高兴你给我这个机会。 我非常偏爱加拿大。

I think their socialized medicine system works. I think they’re wise to have it. I think they’re wise to pay their pharmaceutical prices instead of ours.

我认为他们的社会化医疗体系是有效的。 我认为他们拥有它是明智的。 我认为他们支付药品价格而不是我们的价格是明智的。

And I think it’s wonderful that we’ve gotten along with Canada so well all these years.

我觉得这么多年来我们和加拿大相处得这么好真是太好了。

I think you should be quite pleased with Canada.

我想你应该对加拿大感到满意。

I don’t think it helped you to have two different languages spoken. That was an unfortunate accident. But I basically like Canada and I think, in some ways, you do better than we do.

我不认为说两种不同的语言对你有帮助。 那是个不幸的意外。 但我基本上喜欢加拿大，而且我认为，在某些方面，你比我们做得更好。

Jerry points out that we have customers in Canada. He’s encouraging me.

杰里指出我们在加拿大有客户，他在鼓励我。

Question: I have a question regarding investing. With computers and artificial intelligence rapidly getting better at investing than humans, what should analysts, portfolio managers, and the investment management industry do to remain competitive? Thank you.

问: 我有一个关于投资的问题。 随着计算机和人工智能在投资方面比人类做得更好，分析师、投资组合经理和投资管理行业应该如何保持竞争力？ 谢谢你。

Charlie Munger: Well, that’s a very good question.

查理 · 芒格: 嗯，这是个非常好的问题。

I think what people in the investment management industry ought to do is prepare for tougher times ahead.

我认为投资管理行业的人们应该做的是为未来更艰难的时期做好准备。

I think this indexing thing is going to run and run and run, and I think there are wretched excesses in a lot of well-paid hedge funds and private equity businesses that will in due time result in a lot of troubles that give pain.

我认为，这种指数化的东西将一直持续下去，而且我认为，许多薪酬丰厚的对冲基金和私人股本公司的过度投资将在适当的时候导致许多麻烦，带来痛苦。

Everywhere I see, the endowment managers have the same mantra. They want fewer and better investment managers. That’s not going to be good for investment managers. And the rest of the people are indexing.

我看到的每一个地方，捐赠基金经理们都有同样的口头禅。 他们想要更少更好的投资经理。 这对投资经理来说可不是什么好事。 剩下的人都在做索引。

Now do you want any other cheery news?

现在你还想听到其他令人高兴的消息吗？

The cheery news is that if you think the way we nerds think and keep at it long enough, you’ll do all right. But if you go with this crowd, I think there’s pain ahead.

令人高兴的消息是，如果你认为我们书呆子的思维方式和坚持足够长的时间，你会做得很好。 但是如果你跟着这群人走，我认为前面还有痛苦。

Question: In the past, you’ve recommended index funds for people seeking wealth accumulation, and in the past, Warren Buffett has recommended using this sell-off strategy for income as opposed to chasing dividends. If we synthesise those ideas, it seems like the best course of action for investing over a lifetime is to use index funds for accumulation and the sell-off strategy for income and retirement. Would you agree with that? And if so, what benefits do you see in using that strategy? Thank you.

问: 在过去，你曾经为那些寻求财富积累的人推荐过指数基金，而在过去，沃伦 · 巴菲特曾经推荐过用这种抛售策略来获得收益，而不是追逐股息。 如果我们综合这些想法，似乎一生中最好的投资方式就是利用指数基金进行积累，利用抛售策略进行收入和退休。 你同意吗？ 如果是这样的话，你认为使用这种策略有什么好处？ 谢谢你。

Charlie Munger: Well, I think that the reason it’s growing is that for most people it does work better.

查理 · 芒格: 嗯，我认为它增长的原因是，对大多数人来说，它确实工作得更好。

On the other hand, there’s a huge proclivity to gamble. It’s very interesting to play in a game where the returns are variable. So there’s a huge lure that comes to gambling.

另一方面，人们有赌博的倾向。 这是一个非常有趣的博弈，在这个博弈中收益是可变的。 所以赌博有一个巨大的诱惑。

In China, the ordinary holding period for the individual investor is short. They love to gamble in stocks. This is really stupid. It’s hard to imagine anything dumber than the way the Chinese hold stocks.

在中国，个人投资者的普通持有期很短。 他们喜欢在股票上赌博。 这太愚蠢了。 很难想象还有什么比中国人持有股票的方式更蠢的了。

They’re so good at everything else. It shows how hard it is to be rational.

他们对其他事情都很在行，这表明理性是多么的困难。

I think there’s lots of troubles coming. It’s too much wretched excess.

我认为会有很多麻烦。 这是太多可怜的过剩。

Question: I have a question regarding the Stoics. It’s something I’ve studied after you’ve mentioned it. Anybody who has read your life, your testament, knows to not be a victim but to be a survivor and it’s an attitude that has helped me in my short life so far. Could you perhaps expand on that idea, how it’s helped you, and how that it’s perhaps one of the greatest ways to live your life - regardless of what happens to you.

问: 我有一个关于斯多葛学派的问题。 这是你提到之后我研究的东西。 任何读过你的生活，你的遗嘱的人，都知道不要做一个受害者，而是要做一个幸存者，这种态度在我短暂的一生中帮助了我。 你能不能详细阐述一下这个想法，它是如何帮助你的，以及它是如何成为你生活中最好的方式之一——不管发生了什么。

Charlie Munger: Well, of course.

查理 · 芒格: 当然。

Some people are victimised by other people and if it weren’t for the indignation that that causes we wouldn’t have reforms that we need.

有些人是其他人的受害者，如果不是因为愤怒，我们就不会有我们需要的改革。

But that truth is mixed with another. It’s very counterintuitive for an individual to feel like a victim even if he is. The best attitude is to he cheerful about everything and keep plugging along.

但是，这个真相与另一个真相混杂在一起。 对于一个人来说，觉得自己是受害者是非常违反直觉的，即使他是受害者。 最好的态度是对任何事情都保持愉快的心情，并且坚持下去。

And therefore, I don’t like politicians who get ahead by trying to make everybody else feel like a victim. They make my flesh crawl. I just don’t believe in it.

因此，我不喜欢那些通过让别人觉得自己是受害者而获得成功的政客。 他们让我起鸡皮疙瘩。 我只是不相信。

Who wants to be a victim instead of a survivor?

谁愿意成为受害者而不是幸存者？

You can recognize your position as bad and try and improve it - that’s okay. But to have a deep feeling of it’s all somebody else’s fault is a very counterproductive way to think. People don’t even like being around it. It’s really stupid.

你可以认识到自己的处境很糟糕，并努力改善它——这没关系。 但是深深地感觉到这都是别人的错是一种非常适得其反的思考方式。 人们甚至不喜欢呆在它周围。 这真的很蠢。

And yet our politicians build on it and try to make their careers work by doing something that’s very bad for all the people they’re talking to. And they think they’re doing the world’s work.

然而，我们的政治家们却在此基础上继续努力，试图通过做一些对所有与他们交谈的人都非常不利的事情来使他们的职业生涯顺利进行。 他们认为他们在做全世界的工作。

It’s crazy. It’s absolutely crazy.

太疯狂了，简直太疯狂了。

Question: Daily Journal and Berkshire own a lot of the very large banks. I suspect many people in this room do - I know I do. It’s kind of tailgating you and Mr. Buffett. My question is concerning some of the Fintech technologies coming up. Your position on crypto is very clear, but regarding some of the other Fintech technologies, my question is: Do you see them as being a threat to the long-term profitability of those large banks.

问题: 《每日日报》和伯克希尔拥有许多大型银行。 我怀疑这个房间里的许多人都知道——我知道我知道。 这有点像跟在你和巴菲特先生后面。 我的问题是关于一些即将出现的金融技术。 你对加密技术的立场非常明确，但是对于其他一些金融技术，我的问题是: 你认为它们会威胁到这些大银行的长期盈利能力吗。

Charlie Munger: Well, I don’t know much about crypto technologies except to avoid them.

查理 · 芒格: 我对加密技术知之甚少，只知道尽量避免使用。

By the way, I have a lot of things in what I call the “too hard” pile. And if you fit into my too hard pile, I throw you into my too hard pile and think about it.

顺便说一下，我有很多我称之为“太难”的东西。 如果你适合我的太硬的一堆，我把你扔到我的太硬的一堆，并考虑它。

Now, every once in a while, I take something on or drift into something really difficult and then I continue doing it just because I’m perverse.

现在，每隔一段时间，我就会做一些非常困难的事情，然后继续做下去，只是因为我执迷不悟。

The Daily Journal was basically a ridiculous enterprise. It’s really difficult. I’m enormously rich and I’m 96 years old, yet I care terribly how it works out.

《每日日报》基本上是一个荒谬的企业。 这真的很难。 我非常富有，我已经96岁了，但是我还是非常关心它是如何运作的。

It’s a little insane. I wonder why you would come here and talk to a nutcase like me.

有点疯狂。 我想知道你为什么来这里和我这样的疯子说话。

I hate things like bitcoin. I hate things that are intrinsically anti-social. Of course we need real currencies.

我讨厌比特币之类的东西。 我讨厌本质上反社会的东西。 当然，我们需要真正的货币。

One of the interesting things about the current conditions is that we Americans have created, by accident, the reserve currency of the world. And the world needs a reserve currency.

当前形势下一件有趣的事情是，我们美国人偶然创造了世界储备货币。 世界需要一种储备货币。

I don’t sense any sense of trusteeship among my fellow Americans for behaving very well in our responsibilities to the rest of the world with our own currency. Our attitude is we’ll do what pleases us. That’s not my view.

我没有感觉到我的美国同胞们对我们用自己的货币对世界其他国家承担责任的行为有任何托管意识。 我们的态度是做自己喜欢的事。 这不是我的观点。

I think once you get a big responsibility to other people that are depending on you, you ought to think about them too.

我认为，一旦你对那些依赖你的人承担了很大的责任，你也应该考虑一下他们。

Question: We have record budget deficits, record unemployment, and record expansion of the balance sheet. Why do you think we don’t have inflation? And secondly, could you recommend some good books you’ve read the last year?

问题: 我们有创纪录的预算赤字、创纪录的失业率和创纪录的资产负债表扩张。 为什么你认为我们没有通货膨胀？ 其次，你能推荐一些你去年读过的好书吗？

Charlie Munger: Well, regarding inflation: You know, the economists of the world thought they knew a lot more than they did.

查理 · 芒格: 嗯，关于通货膨胀: 你知道，世界上的经济学家认为他们知道的比他们知道的多得多。

What has happened is weird. In response to the Great Recession, all the nations in the world have printed money like crazy and have bought all kinds of investment assets. They’ve done things that nobody in the economics profession would have recommended on this scale, even five or so years ago.

发生的事情很奇怪。 为了应对大萧条，世界上所有的国家都疯狂地印钞票，购买各种各样的投资资产。 他们所做的事情在经济学界没有人会建议这么大的规模，甚至在五年前。

And yet, the inflation has been very low.

然而，通货膨胀一直非常低。

I think we all have a lot of things to be modest about when we talk about economics.

我认为当我们谈论经济学的时候，我们都有很多需要谦虚的地方。

Lyndon Johnson said that giving a talk on economics was a lot like pissing down your leg. It feels hot to you but it doesn’t influence anybody else very much.

林登 · 约翰逊说，就经济问题发表演讲就像尿裤子一样。 你会觉得很热，但对其他人影响不大。

And I’m afraid I can’t do much better than Lyndon Johnson could.

恐怕我不能比林登 · 约翰逊做得更好了。

On books: People send me books more than I can read, so I skim a lot of them very rapidly. And so I’m not sure I’m the right one anymore to ask.

关于书: 人们寄给我的书比我能读的多，所以我很快地浏览了很多。 所以我不确定我是否是那个合适的人选。

Books have been so important to me all my life. I used to read fewer books and read them better than I do now. And of course, I don’t see very well. So maybe you should talk to some younger man about your books.

书籍对我的一生都是如此重要。 我过去读的书比现在少，而且读得更好。 当然，我看得不是很清楚。 所以也许你应该和年轻人谈谈你的书。

Question: My question is about your outlook for global markets and economies especially given the slowdown in the global economy driven by the Chinese economy, and also the rising political risk. So what’s your take on the market and economy going forward? Thank you.

问: 我的问题是关于你对全球市场和经济的展望，特别是考虑到中国经济导致的全球经济放缓，以及不断上升的政治风险。 那么你对未来的市场和经济有什么看法呢？ 谢谢你。

Charlie Munger: Well, I’m mildly optimistic about China for a variety of reasons.

查理 · 芒格: 嗯，出于各种原因，我对中国有点乐观。

Nobody has ever taken a big nation ahead as fast as China has come ahead. And I think they’ve done a lot right. So I’m a big admirer of what’s happened there.

从来没有哪个大国像中国这样领先。 我认为他们做得很对。 所以我非常崇拜那里发生的一切。

If you stop to think about it, they were in a Malthusian trap, and they prevented 500,000 babies from being born. They did it by methods that we wouldn’t like in the United States. But I think they were doing the world a favor and I think that what they did was admirable.

如果你停下来想一想，他们是在一个马尔萨斯陷阱中，他们阻止了50万婴儿的出生。 他们采用了我们在美国不喜欢的方法。 但我认为他们是在帮助这个世界，我认为他们的所作所为令人钦佩。

So basically, I don’t have this hostility toward China. I really admire what the Chinese people have achieved and I think, considering that they started as communists, their leaders are pretty good.

所以基本上，我对中国没有敌意。 我真的很钦佩中国人民所取得的成就，而且我认为，考虑到他们是从共产主义者开始的，他们的领导人相当不错。

It’s amazing. Imagine a communist country creating this enormous period of growth and prosperity - and lifting 800 million people out of poverty.

太神奇了。 想象一下，一个共产主义国家创造了这个巨大的增长和繁荣时期，使8亿人摆脱了贫困。

I like what is happening in China and I think the United States ought to get along with China and China ought to get along with the United States.

我喜欢中国正在发生的事情，我认为美国应该和中国相处，中国应该和美国相处。

Regarding the global situation, it’s so peculiar to have negative interest rates.

就全球形势而言，负利率实在是太奇怪了。

There’s another thing I admire, and this will strike you as very peculiar: There’s one modern nation which has had like 25 years of stasis. How can anybody admire 25 years of stasis? I think the Japanese have handled 25 years of stasis with magnificent skill and philosophy. Japan is not going to hell. They don’t like 25 years of stasis but they take it like men and they aren’t bitching and wailing and they don’t act like victims.

还有一件事我很钦佩，这也许会让你觉得非常奇怪: 有一个现代国家已经经历了25年的停滞。 怎么会有人欣赏25年的停滞期？ 我认为日本人已经用高超的技巧和哲学处理了25年的停滞期。 日本不会下地狱。 他们不喜欢25年的停滞期，但他们像男人一样接受它，他们不抱怨和哀号，他们不像受害者。

So I really admire the way the Japanese have handled their adversity and I don’t think the adversity came from a lot of mistakes. They were an export powerhouse and up came China and Korea. Of course, they had some troubles. We’d all have trouble if we had way tougher competition.

所以我真的很钦佩日本人处理逆境的方式，我不认为逆境来自于很多错误。 他们是一个出口大国，然后是中国和韩国。 当然，他们遇到了一些麻烦。 如果我们面临更激烈的竞争，我们都会有麻烦。

So I don’t think that Japan’s stasis was Japan’s fault. I think it just happened. I think they bear up magnificently well in order to be greatly admired. And of course, they got into this defect three manufacturing ethos in a big way and led the world in it.

所以我不认为日本的停滞是日本的错。 我想事情就这么发生了。 我认为他们为了得到极大的赞赏而表现得非常出色。 当然，他们很大程度上融入了这种缺陷三制造的思潮，并且引领了世界。

So, I think the United States has a lot to learn from Asians.

所以，我认为美国有很多东西要向亚洲人学习。

Think about how everything’s clean in Japan. You don’t see any homeless sleeping and defecating in the street either. There’s a lot to be said for Japan.

想想日本的一切都是干净的。 你也看不到任何无家可归的人在街上睡觉和排便。 对于日本来说，有很多可以说的。

Question: I was hoping that you might share with us some examples of how you use disconfirming evidence to change some of your important, determinedly held beliefs.

问: 我希望你能和我们分享一些例子，说明你是如何使用不确认的证据来改变你的一些重要的、坚定的信念的。

Charlie Munger: Well, of course being able to recognize when you’re wrong is a godsend.

查理 · 芒格: 当然，能够意识到自己的错误是天赐良机。

A good bit of the Munger fortune came from liquidating things we originally purchased because we were wrong. Of course you have to learn to change your mind when you’re wrong.

芒格的很大一部分财富来自于清算我们最初购买的东西，因为我们错了。 当然，你必须学会在你错了的时候改变你的想法。

I actually work at trying to discard beliefs. Most people just try and cherish whatever idiotic notion they already have because they think it’s their notion that must be good. Of course you must be reexamining what you previously thought particularly when disconfirming evidence comes through.

事实上，我努力尝试抛弃信念。 大多数人只是尝试和珍惜他们已经有的任何白痴观念，因为他们认为这是他们的观念，必须是好的。 当然，你必须重新审视你以前的想法，尤其是当反驳证据出现的时候。

There’s hardly anything more important than being rational or objective. Just think of all the dumb things you can do in life.

没有什么比保持理性和客观更重要的了。 想想你一生中能做的所有愚蠢的事情。

Think of the brilliant people who are just utterly brilliant who do some of the dumbest things. You won’t have any trouble thinking of examples.

想想那些才华横溢的人，他们做了一些最愚蠢的事情。 想到例子你不会有任何困难。

In fact, most of us can think of our own accident the last year or two and we can all pull up an example or two. It’s hard to be rational.

事实上，我们大多数人都能想起过去一两年发生的事故，我们都能举出一两个例子。 很难保持理性。

Question: I recently watched a documentary that introduced the economic masters, Keynes and Hayek. I would like to know your comments on both on them and which economic theory you would prefer. And to take a step further, if applied to personal goal-setting, which model would you advise us to follow between planning and flexibility? Thank you very much.

问: 我最近看了一部介绍经济学大师凯恩斯和哈耶克的纪录片。 我想知道你对这两个问题的看法，以及你更喜欢哪一种经济理论。 更进一步，如果应用于个人目标设定，您建议我们在计划性和灵活性之间采用哪种模式？ 非常感谢。

Charlie Munger: Well, Keynes, of course, was a very interesting man.

查理 · 芒格: 当然，凯恩斯是一个非常有趣的人。

He probably had more influence on the economics profession than anybody - maybe excepting Adam Smith.

他对经济学界的影响可能比任何人都大——也许除了亚当 · 斯密。

I lived in the Great Depression and his ideas were exactly right for fixing the Great Depression. What happened was we got out of it finally because accidental Keynesianism came in courtesy of Adolf Hitler in World War II. So I don’t see how you could study economics without Keynes.

我生活在大萧条时期，他的想法对于解决大萧条是完全正确的。 我们终于摆脱了困境，因为二战期间阿道夫 · 希特勒提出了意外的凯恩斯主义。 因此，我不明白，没有凯恩斯，你怎么能学习经济学。

Hayek is more complicated and I don’t think I’m the world’s best understander of Hayek. I’ve read him and I rather admire him but I’m not sure I totally agree with him.

哈耶克更加复杂，我不认为我是哈耶克的最好的理解者。 我读过他的作品，我很钦佩他，但我不确定我是否完全同意他的观点。

Question: I want to ask you about Tesla. The company has a market capitalization of about a $140 billion. It traded last week about $200 billion in stock and traded about $500 billion in options. The stock moved about 20% a day, meanwhile Mr. Musk seems thrilled to stoke this volatility. I want to know what your thoughts are on this situation and particularly what your thoughts are on Mr. Musk’s behavior.

问题: 我想问你关于特斯拉的事。 该公司拥有约1400亿美元的市值。 它上周交易了大约2000亿美元的股票，交易了大约5000亿美元的期权。 股票每天大约移动20% ，同时马斯克先生似乎很兴奋地加剧了这种波动。 我想知道你对这件事的看法，特别是你对马斯克先生的行为有什么看法。

Charlie Munger: My thoughts are two: I would never buy it, and I would never sell it short.

查理 · 芒格: 我有两个想法: 我永远不会买它，我永远不会卖空它。

I have a third comment. Howard Amundsen once said something that I’ve taken to heart: “Never underestimate the man who overestimates himself.”

我还有第三条评论。 霍华德 · 阿蒙森曾经说过一句我铭记在心的话: “永远不要低估那些高估自己的人。”

I think Elon Musk is peculiar and he may overestimate himself but he may not be wrong all the time.

我认为埃隆 · 马斯克很特别，他可能高估了自己，但他可能并不总是错的。

Question: I have two questions. 1) What do you think of value investing in the next 50 or 100 years, and 2) do you have any advise on industrial research and industrial investments. Thank you.

问: 我有两个问题。 你对未来50年或100年的价值投资有什么看法? 你对工业研究和工业投资有什么建议吗。 谢谢你。

Charlie Munger: Well, I don’t think I’ve got any wonderful comments to make about industrial investments.

查理 · 芒格: 嗯，我不认为我对工业投资有什么好的评论。

I do have the feeling that the world may change and there are two changes that I think are possible. I think they may extend average life duration by fancy tricks and I think they may reduce cancer deaths by fancy mounts.

我确实有这样的感觉，世界可能会改变，我认为有两种改变是可能的。 我认为他们可以通过花哨的把戏来延长平均寿命，我认为他们可以通过花哨的坐骑来减少癌症死亡率。

Think about what’s already happened in technology. Imagine the whole internet developing, whole different things, all those old companies, such as daily newspapers dying, and the total change in manufacturing processes. There’s been a lot of change and, of course, this has caused a lot of loss to people that own stocks.

想想在科技领域已经发生了什么。 想象一下整个互联网的发展，各种各样的东西，所有那些老的公司，比如日报的消亡，以及制造过程的全面改变。 这里发生了很多变化，当然，这也给持有股票的人带来了很大的损失。

I do have the feeling that all that was really important has probably already happened, it’s going to happen from this point forward. How much better can it be once you have enough to eat? What is extra money going to do for you?

我确实有这样的感觉，所有真正重要的事情可能已经发生了，从现在开始就会发生。 一旦你有了足够的食物，它还能有多好呢？ 多出来的钱对你有什么好处？

So I do think that my generation had the best of all this technical change. Our children stopped dying, living standards are way up, air-conditioning came, medicine greatly improved, they could replace your achy joint when it caused agony. I don’t think we’re going to get as much improvement in the future because we’ve gotten so much already.

所以我确实认为我们这一代在所有这些技术变革中是最好的。 我们的孩子不再死亡，生活水平大大提高，空调来了，药物大大改善，它们可以替代疼痛时，造成痛苦的关节。 我不认为我们在未来会得到同样多的进步，因为我们已经得到了这么多。

Question: Early in the meeting you mentioned the benefits of taking the high road, treating the customers the right way, etc. There’s a sense, which may or may not be true, that in China there’s more moral flexibility in business, less respect for the rule of law, and less transparency than there is in the west. Do you share that concern?

问: 在会议开始时，你提到了采取高姿态、正确对待客户等做法的好处。 有一种感觉，可能是真的，也可能不是真的，在中国，在商业上有更多的道德灵活性，更少的对法治的尊重，和更少的透明度比西方。 你也有这样的担心吗？

Charlie Munger: Well, I’m naturally more comfortable in my own country with its traditions than I am in what’s evolved out of Chinese communism.

查理 · 芒格: 我对自己国家的传统自然比对中国共产主义发展出来的东西更感到舒适。

Considering where they were, mired in this Malthusian poverty and also mired in some ignorance. That leader who said: “I don’t care if the cat is black or white. I want to know if it catches mice.” That was one smart leader. I think that leader of yesteryear has other leaders now who are smart. I think they are going to keep improving.

考虑到他们的处境，陷入了马尔萨斯式的贫穷，也陷入了某种无知。 那位领导人说: “我不在乎这只猫是黑是白。 我想知道它能不能抓到老鼠。” 那是一个聪明的领导人。 我认为过去的领导人现在有其他聪明的领导人。 我认为他们会继续改进。

I even think that the Chinese may get over their crazy love of gambling.

我甚至认为中国人可能会克服他们对赌博的疯狂热爱。

Question: Any secret of longevity and how many hours do you work per day? How do you stay so current with all the information?

问题: 长寿的秘诀是什么? 你每天工作多少小时？ 你是如何掌握这些最新信息的？

Charlie Munger: I don’t think I deserve any credit for longevity. It just happened. There’s no male in my family that ever lived any such age. It’s weird but I can’t help you.

查理 · 芒格: 我不认为我应该得到任何长寿的荣誉。 就这么发生了。 我们家没有一个男性生活在这样的年龄。 这很奇怪，但我帮不了你。

Question: You mentioned earlier that some mental tricks have been helpful to you. One was taking the high road, the other being perfectly rational. What other mental tricks have been helpful to you during your life? And also, you touched on excesses, whether it’s in venture capital, private equity, political sphere, I guess also government debt. What other excesses do you see in the system right now?

问: 你之前提到一些心理技巧对你很有帮助。 一个人走的是正道，另一个人则完全理性。 在你的生活中，还有什么其他的心理技巧对你有帮助吗？ 还有，你提到了过度，无论是在风险投资，私募股权，政治领域，我想还有政府债务。 你现在在这个体系中还看到了什么其他的过分行为？

Charlie Munger: I don’t think the wide use of opioids have helped us either.

查理 · 芒格: 我也不认为广泛使用阿片类药物对我们有什么帮助。

There’s always some miserable excess. It’s a very complicated subject.

总是有一些可悲的过度。这是一个非常复杂的主题。

You remember how the Chinese emperor got rid of opioid addiction by one male or eight or something. You didn’t have to kill very many people. He just said death penalty for users, no exceptions. And away went his addiction problem.

你还记得中国的皇帝是怎样通过一个男人或者八个男人或者其他什么人来戒除毒瘾的吗。 你没必要杀很多人。 他只是说对用户判处死刑，没有例外。 然后他的毒瘾问题就消失了。

I think somebody may try some of that stuff sooner of later if things get awful enough. It may not be the worst way to handle it.

我认为，如果事情变得足够糟糕的话，有人可能早晚会尝试一些这样的东西。 这也许不是最糟糕的处理方式。

On that cheery note, I’ll go to the next question.

说到这里，我将进入下一个问题。

Question: What would you recommend to teach children on how to be successful in life.

问: 关于如何在生活中获得成功，你有什么建议教孩子们。

Charlie Munger: I think the best thing any parent can do is be a good example. Preaching doesn’t work worth a damn.

查理 · 芒格: 我认为任何父母能做的最好的事情就是做一个好榜样。 说教毫无意义。

Question: There are over $10 trillion around the world with negative yield and by the president’s Twitter feed it seems he wants to bring negative interest rates to the United States. Are you for negative interest rates or against them?

问题: 全世界有超过10万亿美元的负收益率，从总统的推特消息来看，他似乎想给美国带来负利率。 你是支持负利率还是反对负利率？

Charlie Munger: Negative interest rates make me very nervous. However, I don’t think the authorities had much choice. It’s politically impossible to do big stimulus rapidly and the only weapon they had in a crisis was to print money and change interest rates. I think it was probably the right thing we’ve done.

查理 · 芒格: 负利率让我非常紧张。 然而，我认为当局别无选择。 在政治上，迅速实施大规模刺激是不可能的，在危机中，他们唯一的武器就是印钞票和改变利率。 我认为这可能是我们所做的正确的事情。

Of course, it makes me nervous. I think having worked once, people will overdo it. That’s the nature of government people and of course that makes me nervous.

当然，这让我很紧张。 我认为工作过一次，人们就会过度劳累。 这就是政府工作人员的本性，当然这也让我感到紧张。

I don’t know what to do about this.

我不知道该怎么办。

Question: My question is about the effects of low interest rates on insurance. Lower returns on float maybe cause a tighter supply of insurance. For example, there used to be three main underwriters ensuing all the taxicabs in Sourthern California. Now, it is heading towards just one underwriter who will have a monopoly on all commercial taxi insurance in Southern California. You have access to CEOs of Geico and Wesco and a rolodex that we can only dream of. So do you see 10 years of low interest rates posing a systemic risk to the supply of insurance?

问: 我的问题是关于低利率对保险的影响。 浮动汇率回报率较低可能导致保险供应紧张。 例如，曾经有三家主要的保险公司为南加州的所有出租车提供保险。 现在，它正朝着只有一家保险公司垄断南加州所有商业出租车保险的方向发展。 你可以接触到 Geico 和韦斯科的首席执行官，还有一个我们只能梦想的名片夹。 那么，你认为10年的低利率会对保险供应构成系统性风险吗？

Charlie Munger: I am made uncomfortable with the idea of extremely low interest rates, or negative interest rates even more extreme, lasting a long time. I don’t think anybody knows how those will work.

查理 · 芒格: 我对极低的利率，或者负利率更加极端，持续时间更长的想法感到不安。 我认为没有人知道它们是如何工作的。

If you are a little uneasy, welcome to the club. I think it’s dangerous and peculiar. But I think we had to do what we did.

如果你有点不安，欢迎加入我们的俱乐部。 我认为这很危险也很奇怪。 但我认为我们必须这么做。

In other words, I don’t have any good solution for you. I think you’re right to be worried about it.

换句话说，我没有任何好的解决方案。 我觉得你担心是对的。

Question: With the deficits so high, are interest rates more in a bubble situation? And I remember back in the ‘70s we had the Nifty Fifties. Are technology stocks in the same criteria as it is now? It feels like there’s 10-15 stocks that everybody’s investing in, the value situation has been down for the last four or five years. I was also looking at a couple of stocks that you own, like Kraft Heinz. With your 26% in the company, would it make sense for Berkshire Hathaway to buy out Kraft Heinz completely and take advantage of a low price?

问题: 在赤字如此之高的情况下，利率是否更多地处于泡沫状态？ 我记得在70年代，我们有一流的50年代。 科技股是否与现在的标准相同？ 感觉就像每个人都在投资10-15只股票，价值状况在过去的四五年里一直在下降。 我也在关注你持有的几只股票，比如克拉夫特亨氏食品。 你持有公司26% 的股份，伯克希尔·哈撒韦完全收购卡夫亨氏并利用低价优势有意义吗？

Charlie Munger: Well, I don’t think I can comment of what Berkshire Hathaway might do next at what price.

好吧，我不认为我可以评论伯克希尔·哈撒韦下一步会以什么价格做什么。

Nifty Fifty is an interesting question. At the heights of the Nifty Fifty craziness, which was created by the Morgan bank of all places, it had a home-sewing company that was trading at 50 times earnings. Home-sewing, great god.

漂亮的五十是个有趣的问题。 在所有地方的摩根银行创造的一流五十疯狂的高度，它有一家家庭缝纫公司，以50倍的市盈率交易。 家庭缝纫，伟大的上帝。

We are not that crazy yet. So a lot of what’s happened is not that crazy. I think a lot of these companies are very valuable, though they may be selling at too high prices.

我们还没有那么疯狂。 所以发生的很多事情并没有那么疯狂。 我认为很多这样的公司都非常有价值，尽管他们的价格可能太高了。

But home-sewing was sure to fail. I don’t think our leading tech companies are at all sure to fail. The current situation is not nearly as crazy. Nifty Fifty was absolute dementia.

但家庭缝纫肯定会失败。 我不认为我们领先的科技公司一定会失败。 目前的情况远没有这么疯狂。 漂亮的五十岁是绝对的痴呆。

Question: Many of my classmates are considering careers in private equity and venture capital. You yourself mentioned that some of your family members are in private equity. You also mentioned that you see a lot excess in that sphere. What advise do you give to your family starting careers in private equity and what advise would you give to young people as a whole starting careers in those sectors? Thank you.

问: 我的很多同学都在考虑从事私人股本和风险投资行业。 你自己也提到你的一些家庭成员是私募股权投资者。 你还提到在那个领域你看到了很多过剩的东西。 你对在私募股权领域开始职业生涯的家庭有什么建议? 你对在这些领域开始职业生涯的年轻人有什么建议？ 谢谢你。

Charlie Munger: My family is not very interested in what I think about their career choices. I respect their disinterest.

查理 · 芒格: 我的家人对我如何看待他们的职业选择不是很感兴趣。 我尊重他们的漠不关心。

But I do think we have way too much wretched excess. Any time you have any new names to sort of mislead people, like adjusted EBITDA, think of the basic intellectual dishonesty that comes with it. You’re almost announcing you’re a flake.

但我确实认为我们有太多可怜的过剩。 任何时候你有任何新的名字来误导人们，比如调整后的 EBITDA，想想随之而来的基本的智力欺骗。 你几乎是在宣布你是个怪人。

And yet our respectable people talk that way and charge fees for talking that way. It’s ridiculous. So I don’t like this wretched excess.

然而，我们那些受人尊敬的人却是这么说话的，而且还要为这种说话方式收费。 这太荒谬了。 所以我不喜欢这种可怜的奢侈。

I don’t like all these transactions where one private equity group sells to another and the guys who really own it are just sort of raising the fees higher and higher over owning the same in the intellectual mix. It’s a lot that’s financed by its nature. The temptations are too great. It goes to wretched excess.

我不喜欢所有这些交易，一个私募股权集团卖给另一个私募股权集团，而那些真正拥有它的人只是在某种程度上把费用提得越来越高，而不是在知识产权组合中拥有同样的资产。 这是很大一部分资金来源于它的本质。 诱惑太大了。 这已经超出了可怜的限度。

Of course, I don’t like it. I don’t think it’s good for the country. I would argue that the wretched excess that led to the Great Depression, which led to the rise of Hitler - I think we pay a big price eventually for wretched excess, stupidity, greed, and so forth.

当然，我不喜欢这样。 我不认为这对国家有好处。 我认为，可怜的过度导致了大萧条，导致了希特勒的崛起——我认为我们最终为可怜的过度、愚蠢、贪婪等等付出了巨大的代价。

I’m all for staying in control. In other words, I’m all for behaving a lot more like Confucius.

我完全赞成保持控制。 换句话说，我完全赞成行为更像孔子。

Question: Mr. Munger, it is well known that you are an avid and voracious reader. Do you ever reread books that you’ve already read before, and if so, what books do you reread?

问: 芒格先生，众所周知，您是一位贪婪的读者。 你有没有重读过你以前读过的书，如果有，你会重读哪些书？

Charlie Munger: Yeah, I do. Let me give you an example of something that I want to reread that I haven’t reread yet.

查理 · 芒格: 是的，我知道。 让我给你们一个我想重读的例子，我还没有重读过。

The other day I was musing over the current situation. It popped into my head that I had read a poem about 80 years ago by George Sand. George Sand was a female writer but to get ahead in those days you sometimes use men’s names. George Sand wrote a poem and it was an ode to the goddess of poverty.

有一天，我在思考当前的形势。 我突然想起80年前读过乔治 · 桑的一首诗。 乔治 · 桑是一位女作家，但在那个时代，要想出人头地，你有时会用男人的名字。 乔治 · 桑写了一首诗，是对贫穷女神的颂歌。

She said: “Hail to the goddess of poverty, a wonderful goddess of poverty. She tells the fields, she mines the mines”, and so on. And I remember toward the end of the goddess of poverty she said: “You try and banish me, you’ll live to want me back.”

她说: “向贫穷女神致敬，她是贫穷的女神。 她告诉田野，她挖地雷”等等。 我记得在贫穷女神临终时她说: “你试图驱逐我，你会活着想要我回来。”

I kind of agreed to this poem and I’d like to see it again.

我同意这首诗，我想再看一遍。

I don’t know how to punch nodes on the internet and get George Sand’s poem to me so if somebody would send me the poem I would very much like it.

我不知道如何在互联网上打孔节点，并得到乔治桑的诗给我，所以如果有人将我的诗，我会非常喜欢它。

I’m telling you this because it’s an antidote to our politicians who want to tell us they’re going to abolish all poverty. It’s a stupid idea. It’s like saying we’ll all be riches in a modern civilization. It’s status what we want but we need more means.

我告诉你们这些，是因为这是对那些想告诉我们他们将要消除所有贫困的政客们的一剂解毒剂。 这是个愚蠢的想法。 这就好比说我们都将成为现代文明的财富。 这是我们想要的地位，但我们需要更多的手段。

The tow of reaching for status is that the bottom 90% are always going to contain exactly 90% of the people no matter how hard we work or how much we succeed.

追求社会地位的两个原因是，不管我们多么努力工作，多么成功，底层90% 的人总是会包含90% 的人。

We actually need some tough incentives in a civilization to make it work. In other words, George Sand was right. The goddess of poverty is not all bad. She’s partly good. And of course I like thoughts that I have that are different from anybody else.

事实上，我们需要一些强有力的激励，在一个文明社会中让它运转起来。 换句话说，乔治 · 桑是对的。 掌管贫穷的女神并不都是坏人。 她还算不错。 当然，我喜欢那些与众不同的想法。

I think a billionaire who talks about the glories of the goddess of poverty is making a contribution. But only a bunch of nerds like you will appreciate it.

我认为一个谈论贫穷女神荣耀的亿万富翁正在做出贡献。 但只有一群像你这样的书呆子才会欣赏它。

Question: Just wanted to ask you a quick question about the fact that you were an early proponent of electric vehicles, specifically your investment in BYD. I wonder if from your perspective from today other technologies, like hydrogen, fuel cells, or others that may come to mind, are equally important in terms of their emerging capabilities and what sort of impact they may have.

问: 只是想问你一个简单的问题，关于你是电动汽车的早期支持者，特别是你对比亚迪的投资。 我想知道，从你们今天的角度来看，其他技术，如氢气、燃料电池或其他可能出现在脑海中的技术，是否也同样重要，因为它们的新兴能力以及它们可能产生的影响。

Charlie Munger: Well, I think electric vehicles will be more popular than hydrogen and fuel cells.

查理 · 芒格: 嗯，我认为电动汽车会比氢气和燃料电池更受欢迎。

Getting the sun’s energy transferred into electricity and into the vehicles is basically a good idea for the long pull. And I think all the technology is going to work. Some of it’s actually improving.

将太阳能转化为电能并输送到交通工具中基本上是一个长期推进的好主意。 我认为所有的技术都会起作用。 其中一些实际上正在改善。

We may get a lithium battery that’s actually quite safe and more energetic than most we have now. I think that’s all to the good.

我们可能会得到一种比现在大多数锂电池更安全、更有能量的锂电池。 我想这都是好事。

When I came to California, we had Petroleum Club, and we had wildcatters. A little like texas. I don’t think we found any new oil to speak of in California in decades. I think it’s dangerous to rely on hydrocarbons for energy. Of course, we’ve got to take more directly from the sun.

当我来到加利福尼亚，我们有石油俱乐部，我们有投机者。 有点像德克萨斯。 我不认为几十年来我们在加利福尼亚发现了任何新的石油。 我认为依赖碳氢化合物作为能源是危险的。 当然，我们必须更直接地从太阳取样。

I think that Texas will eventually get to be like California.

我认为德克萨斯最终会变得像加利福尼亚一样。

Question: Do you think it’s necessary for America to recover a positive trade balance to keep its prosperity in the next century?

问: 你认为美国有必要恢复正的贸易平衡以保持其在下个世纪的繁荣吗？

Charlie Munger: The answer is no.

查理 · 芒格: 答案是否定的。

Question: How do you nudge your kids and grandkids to hold on to their shares for as long as possible?

问题: 你如何推动你的孩子和孙子尽可能长时间地持有他们的股票？

Charlie Munger: I don’t think I have a good model for you. My children seem to do pretty much what they please.

查理 · 芒格: 我想我没有好的模特给你。 我的孩子们似乎做了很多他们喜欢做的事。

I find that I’m happier if I just do the best I can by my children and take the results as they fall.

我发现，如果我尽我所能照顾好我的孩子，并在他们跌倒时接受结果，我会更快乐。

I wouldn’t sweat too much about how your children hold the stock you know.

我不会为你的孩子如何持有你所知道的股票而担心太多。

Question: What keeps you going and how do you still have the motivation? Thank you.

问: 是什么让你坚持下去，你是如何保持动力的? 谢谢。

Charlie Munger: Well, maybe I’ve been lucky. I like what I do. I have wonderful partners and friends. I have a nice family. My problems are interesting to me.

查理 · 芒格: 嗯，也许我是幸运的。 我喜欢我的工作。 我有很好的伙伴和朋友。 我有一个很好的家庭。 我对自己的问题很感兴趣。

I have been a very fortunate may and I don’t know how to make everybody else lucky.

我是一个非常幸运的可能，我不知道如何使其他人幸运。

I could have had a different hand and been some miserable alcoholic throwing up in the gutter. I don’t think I deserve any great credit for having stumped into a reasonable amount of felicity.

我本可以换一只手，成为一个在贫民区呕吐的可怜的酒鬼。 我认为我不配得到任何荣誉，因为我已经走进了一个合理的幸福。

I do think that trying to be rational helped. That’s the only thing you’ve got if you’re a fellow nerd.

我确实认为试图保持理性是有帮助的。 如果你是个书呆子，这是你唯一拥有的东西。

If you’re not going to be sex object, you have to rely on your rationality.

如果你不想成为性对象，你必须依靠你的理性。

Question: There’s a lot of talk the these days about the climate and the environment and funds divesting fossil fuels, and countries trying to figure out how to generate electricity without polluting the environment. Could you give us your thoughts on nuclear power? I know that Bill Gates has been a very vocal supporter of it. And I know that Warren Buffett used to invest in Uranium back in the ‘50s and, you know, he more recently helped fund a uranium bank in Central Asia.

问题: 最近有很多关于气候、环境、资金剥离化石燃料的讨论，以及各国试图找出如何在不污染环境的情况下发电的方法。 你能告诉我们你对核能的看法吗？ 我知道比尔 · 盖茨一直大力支持这个计划。 我还知道沃伦 · 巴菲特在上世纪50年代曾经投资过铀矿公司，而且，你知道，他最近还帮助资助了一家位于中亚的铀矿银行。

Charlie Munger: Well, I admire Bill Gates who feels a duty to throw money at stuff that’s unpopular elsewhere and it might possibly work.

查理 · 芒格: 我很欣赏比尔 · 盖茨，他觉得有责任把钱花在那些在其他地方不受欢迎的东西上，而且可能会奏效。

I think it’s an admirable charitable effort by Bill Gates for which he’s very well suited.

我认为这是比尔 · 盖茨令人钦佩的慈善努力，他非常适合做这件事。

I don’t know whether we’re going to get safe little atom plants or something but I think it’s certainly worth thinking about.

我不知道我们是否会得到安全的小型原子植物或者其他什么东西，但我认为这确实值得思考。

The problem with it, of course, is how much material do you want a bunch of crazy humans to have? I don’t know the answer to that question.

当然，它的问题在于，你希望一群疯狂的人类拥有多少物质？ 我不知道那个问题的答案。

Regarding energy, of course we’re going to have to get more from the sun directly and so forth. It’s all to the good that everybody’s going into that in a big way.

关于能量，我们当然需要从太阳直接获得更多的能量，等等。 所有人都在大张旗鼓地投入其中，这是件好事。

By the way, if there was no global warming problem, I’d be in favor of substituting getting power directly from the sun for fossil fuels starting today. I think it’s a good idea to conserve hydrocarbons and use more solar energy. That is not the normal attitude of a lot of people. But I’m right and they’re all wrong.

顺便说一句，如果没有全球变暖的问题，我赞成从今天开始用直接从太阳获得能源来代替化石燃料。 我认为节约碳氢化合物和使用更多的太阳能是个好主意。 这不是很多人的正常态度。 但我是对的，他们都错了。

Question: My question is about universal basic income. What is your opinion on a plan like this? Thank you.

问: 我的问题是关于全民基本收入。 你对这样的计划有什么看法？ 谢谢你。

Charlie Munger: Well, if you did enough of it, you’d totally ruin everything. Little of it we can afford. What the exact mix is will be determining for the political process forever.

查理 · 芒格: 嗯，如果你做得够多的话，你会把一切都毁了的。 我们负担不起。 究竟是什么样的组合将永远决定政治进程。

Question: You talked frequently about having the moral imperative to be rational and yet as humans we’re constantly bearing this evolutional baggage which just get in the way of us thinking rationally. Are there any tools or behaviors you embrace to facilitate your rational thinking?

问: 你经常谈到道德上必须理性，但作为人类，我们不断背负着进化的包袱，这些包袱阻碍了我们理性思考。 你是否拥有任何工具或行为来促进你的理性思考？

Charlie Munger: The answer is: Of course. I hardly do anything else.

查理 · 芒格: 答案是: 当然，我几乎不做别的事情。

One of my favorite tricks is the inversion process. Let me give an example.

我最喜欢的一个技巧是反演过程。

When I was a meteorologist in World War II, they told me how draw weather maps and predict the weather. What I was actually doing was clearing pilots to take flights. I said: “Suppose I want to kill a lot of pilots. What would be the easy way to do it?” I concluded that the only way to do it was to get the planes into icing the planes couldn’t handle or to get the pilot into a place where he’d run off fuel before he could safely land.

当我在第二次世界大战时还是一个气象学家的时候，他们告诉我如何绘制天气图和预测天气。 实际上，我所做的就是让飞行员进行飞行检查。 我说: “假设我想杀死很多飞行员。 最简单的方法是什么? ” 我得出的结论是，唯一的办法是让飞机进入飞机无法处理的结冰状态，或者让飞行员在安全着陆前耗尽燃料。

So I decided I was going to stay miles away from killing pilots by either icing or getting them sucked into conditions where they couldn’t land.

所以我决定，我要远离杀死飞行员，要么结冰，要么把他们吸入无法降落的环境中。

I think that helped me be a better meteorologist in World War II. I just reversed the problem.

我认为这帮助我在第二次世界大战中成为一个更好的气象学家。 我只是把问题颠倒过来。

If somebody hired me to fix India, I would immediately say: “What could I do if I really wanted to hurt India?” I would figure out all the things that would most easily hurt India and then I’d figure out how to avoid them. It works better to invert the problem.

如果有人雇我来修理印度，我会马上说: “如果我真的想伤害印度，我该怎么办? ” 我会想出所有最容易伤害印度的事情，然后想出如何避免它们。 把问题颠倒过来看效果更好。

If you’re a meteorologist, it really helps if you really know how to avoid something which is the only think that’s going to kill your pilots.

如果你是一个气象学家，如果你真的知道如何避免那些只会杀死你的飞行员的东西，那真的会很有帮助。

You can help India the best if you really know what will hurt India the easiest and worst.

如果你真的知道什么最容易和最糟糕地伤害了印度，你就可以帮助印度。

Algebra works the same way. Every great algebraist inverts all the time because the problems are solved easier. Human beings should do the same thing in the ordinary walks of life. Just constantly invert. You don’t think about what you want. You think about what you want to avoid. When you think about what you want to avoid, you also think about what you want. You just go back and forth all the time.

代数也是一样。 每个伟大的代数学家都一直在颠倒，因为这些问题更容易解决。 人类在日常生活中也应该做同样的事情。 只是不断地颠倒。 你不会考虑你想要什么。 你考虑你想要避免什么。 当你思考你想要避免什么的时候，你也在思考你想要什么。 你只是不停地来回走动。

Peter Kaufman, who’s here today, really likes the idea that you want to know how the world looks from the top looking down and you want to know what it looks like from the bottom looking up.

今天在这里的彼得 · 考夫曼，非常喜欢这个想法，你想知道从上往下看世界是怎样的，你想知道从下往上看世界是怎样的。

If you don’t have both points, your reality recognition is lousy. Peter is right and inversion is the same thing.

如果你没有这两点，你对现实的认知就很糟糕。 彼得是对的，倒置也是一回事。

It’s just a simple trick to think about how it looks from the people above me and how it looks from the people beneath me. How can I hurt these people I’m trying to help? All these things help you think it through. And it’s just such simple tricks.

这只是一个简单的小把戏，用来思考我上面的人看起来怎么样，我下面的人看起来怎么样。 我怎么能伤害这些我想帮助的人呢？ 所有这些都有助于你深思熟虑。 这只是一些简单的技巧。

Like the lever, they really help. And yet, our educational system giving advanced degrees don’t give these simple tricks. They’re wrong. They’re just plain wrong.

就像杠杆一样，它们真的很有用。 然而，我们的教育系统给予高等学位并没有提供这些简单的技巧。 他们错了。 他们完全错了。

Question: If you were researching a new company that you’ve never heard of, how would you approach the research process and how much time would you spend? If you perform the intrinsic value estimate and the company was expensive, would you still continue following the company closely and continue researching it or do kind of try to get to evaluation pretty quickly and, if it’s not cheap, kind of move on? How do you balance the time you spend on companies?

问题: 如果你正在研究一个你从未听说过的新公司，你会如何处理这个研究过程，你会花多少时间？ 如果你对公司的内在价值进行估算，而公司价格昂贵，你会继续密切关注公司并继续研究它，还是会尝试很快地进行评估，如果不便宜，你会继续前进？ 你如何平衡花在公司上的时间？

Charlie Munger: Well, if it’s complicated technology I tend to leave it to others. I may get occasional variation in that but basically I just don’t do it.

查理 · 芒格: 如果是复杂的技术，我倾向于把它留给其他人。 我可能偶尔会得到一些变化，但基本上我就是不这么做。

I want to think about things where I have an advantage over other people. I don’t want to play a game where the other people have an advantage over me.

我想要思考一些我比其他人有优势的事情。 我不想玩一个别人比我有优势的游戏。

So if you have a pharmaceutical company and you’re trying to guess what new drug is going to be invented, I’ve got no advantage. Other people are better at that than I am.

因此，如果你有一家制药公司，你试图猜测什么新药将被发明，我没有优势。 其他人在这方面比我做得好。

I don’t play in a game where the other people are wise and I’m stupid. I look for a place where I’m wise and they’re stupid. And believe me, it works better.

我不参加别人聪明而我愚蠢的游戏。 我寻找一个我聪明而他们愚蠢的地方。 相信我，效果更好。

God bless our stupid competitors. They make us rich.

上帝保佑我们愚蠢的竞争对手，他们让我们变得富有。

That’s my philosophy. You have to know the edge of your own competency. You have to kind of know if it’s too tough for you. I’m very good at knowing when I can’t handle something.

这就是我的哲学。 你必须知道你自己能力的边缘。 你得知道这对你来说是不是太难了。 我很擅长知道自己什么时候不能处理事情。

Question: My question is about electric vehicles and BYD. Why are electric vehicle sales at BYD down 50% to 70% while Tesla is growing 50% and what does the future hold for BYD?

问: 我的问题是关于电动汽车和比亚迪。 为什么比亚迪的电动汽车销量下降了50% 到70% ，而特斯拉却增长了50% ? 比亚迪的未来会怎样？

Charlie Munger: Well, I’m not very sure I’m the world’s expert on the future of electric vehicles, except I think they’re coming generally and somebody’s going to make them.

查理 · 芒格: 我不确定自己是否是未来电动汽车的世界专家，除非我认为电动汽车正在普及，而且有人会制造它们。

BYD’s sales went down because the Chinese reduced the incentives they were giving to buyers of electric cars.

比亚迪的销量之所以下降，是因为中国政府减少了对电动汽车购买者的优惠政策。

Tesla’s sales went up because Elon has convinced people that he can cure cancer.

特斯拉的销售额上升是因为 Elon 让人们相信他可以治愈癌症。

Question: One of the more surprising opinions I’ve heard this year is that we never really had journalistic ethics - that the news has always been colored yellow with the voice of their proprietors. With 9 decades of observation under your belt, does that ring true?

问: 今年我听到的一个更令人惊讶的观点是，我们从来没有真正的新闻职业道德——新闻总是被其所有者的声音染成黄色。 经过90多年的观察，这听起来是真的吗？

Charlie Munger: No I think that the sole proprietors, the people that owned the network news and Time magazine, and Newsweek, and the monopoly newspapers, were pretty good. And this current bunch is deliberately lying because it sells better.

查理 · 芒格: 不，我认为独资经营者—- 拥有网络新闻、时代杂志、新闻周刊和垄断报纸的人—- 是相当不错的。 而现在这些人是故意撒谎的，因为他们卖得更好。

I like the old products of nepotism and monopoly. It was better for us than these new guys. These guys are so good at marshaling hatreds.

我喜欢裙带关系和垄断的老产品。 对我们来说比这些新人更好。 这些家伙很擅长煽动仇恨。

You know, politics was once called by some famous English politician the art of marshaling hatreds. We now have news outlets that we all follow and they’re good at marshaling hatreds.

你知道，政治曾经被一些著名的英国政治家称为召集仇恨的艺术。 我们现在有新闻媒体，我们都关注，他们善于组织仇恨。

Well, some hatred might have some constructive use, but they’re overdoing it. Hatred is too intense. It’s cabbaging up the minds of the broadcasters and now cabbaging up the minds of the people who watch.

嗯，一些仇恨可能有一些建设性的用途，但他们做得太过了。 仇恨太强烈了。 它正在广播员的脑海中浮现，现在又浮现在观众的脑海中。

Question: There is this common sentiment that technology is both accelerating the pace of change and its impact broadening across most industries usurping traditional moats. So given your long career, I’m wondering if you think the traditionally moaty industries are being undermined at a pace that’s different from what’s been happening in the past.

问: 人们普遍认为，技术正在加速变革的步伐，其影响力正在扩展到大多数行业，正在篡夺传统护城河。 因此，鉴于你漫长的职业生涯，我想知道你是否认为传统的 moaty 产业正在以不同于过去的速度被削弱。

Charlie Munger: Yeah, I think the moats have been breached time after time.

查理 · 芒格: 是的，我认为护城河一次又一次地被攻破了。

Imagine the Eastman Chemical Company going broke. Imagine all these great department stores being on the edge of extinction. Imagine all those monopoly newspapers going down. Look at the strength of the American auto industry compared to what it was, say in 1950.

想象一下伊士曼化工公司破产的情景。 想象一下，所有这些伟大的百货公司正处于消亡的边缘。 想象一下所有的垄断报纸都在走下坡路。 看看与1950年相比，美国汽车工业的实力。

I think the moats are disappearing rapidly. I mean the old classical moats. I think it’s probably a natural part of the modern economic system, as in old moats stop working.

我想护城河正在迅速消失。 我指的是古老的护城河。 我认为这可能是现代经济体系的自然组成部分，就像老护城河停止工作一样。

Let me know what your problem is and I’ll try to make it more difficult for you.

让我知道你的问题是什么，我会尽量使它更难为你。

Question: What would you say is the best possible way for someone to expose themselves and expand their understanding of workings in the business world which without actually currently being involved it in? And how can I maximize my potential value to a corporation in the future by what I do right now?

问: 你认为对于那些目前还没有真正参与其中的人来说，什么是最好的方式来展示他们自己，扩展他们对商业世界运作的理解？ 我如何通过我现在所做的来最大化我未来对公司的潜在价值？

Charlie Munger: That’s a good question. There are so many of you now who want to be rich by going into finance. At multitude, not all is going to get rich.

查理 · 芒格: 这是个好问题。 现在你们中有很多人想通过进入金融业致富。 在群众中，不是所有人都会变得富有。

Of course, 99% will be in the bottom 99%. That’s just the way it’s going to work.

当然，99% 的人将处于最底层的99% 。 事情就是这样发展的。

If I look at people in my generation, the nerds who were patient and rational eventually did well. Those who lived within their income, worked at being sensible, and when they saw an opportunity grabbed it very fiercely, and so forth. I think that will work for the new nerds of the world.

如果我看看我们这一代人，那些耐心和理性的书呆子们最终都做得很好。 那些生活在自己收入范围内的人，努力变得理智，当他们看到机会时，会猛烈地抓住它，等等。 我认为这对世界上的新书呆子来说是可行的。

For the people who get ahead because they’re star salesmen or charismatic personalities, I’m not one of those, so I don’t know how to do that. So if you’re not a nerd, I can’t help you.

对于那些因为他们是明星销售员或是魅力超凡的个性而获得成功的人来说，我不是其中之一，所以我不知道如何做到这一点。 所以如果你不是书呆子，我也帮不了你。

I think that the odds are that the people who try to do finance are not going to succeed. There’s a lot of wretched excess in it because easy money will always attract wretched excess. It’s just the nature. It’s like a bunch of animals feeding on like carcass in Africa. By the way, that’s an image I chose on purpose.

我认为，那些试图从事金融业的人很可能不会成功。 这里有很多可怜的过剩，因为宽松的货币总是会吸引可怜的过剩。 这就是自然规律。 它就像一群动物在非洲以动物尸体为食。 顺便说一下，这是我故意选择的图片。

I don’t think it’s so pretty and I don’t think that modern finance is so wonderful.

我不认为它是如此美好，也不认为现代金融是如此美好。

In my day, a lot in the finance field were more like engineers. They were so chastened by the Great Depression and all the wretched failure, that they really tried to make everything super safe. And it was a very different plotting place. The people weren’t trying to be be rich, they were trying to be safe.

在我那个时代，很多金融领域的人更像是工程师。 他们受到了大萧条和所有可怜的失败的惩罚，他们真的试图让一切都变得超级安全。 这是一个非常不同的策划地点。 人们并不想变得富有，他们只是想要安全。

This modern world is radically different. I’m not sure if I was starting out in your world how well I would do. It would be a lot harder than it was to get ahead in the world than what it was when I came up.

这个现代世界完全不同。 我不确定如果我在你的世界里开始，我会做得多好。 要在这个世界上取得成功比我刚出道的时候要困难得多。

I think you’ll be happier if you reduce your expectations and if you try and satisfy them, By the way, I think that’s generally a good idea. It sounds silly but it’s so obvious.

我认为如果你降低你的期望，如果你试着去满足它们，你会更快乐，顺便说一下，我认为这通常是一个好主意。 这听起来很愚蠢，但却是显而易见的。

You know how many of us are fairly content with pretty moderate success? That is worth knowing because that’s what most of us are going to get.

你知道我们中有多少人相当满足于相当温和的成功吗？ 这是值得知道的，因为这是我们大多数人将要得到的。

Question: I would like to know your thoughts on the engineering and business generally at Boeing and how you’ve been thinking about that as it’s unfolded recently.

问: 我想知道你对波音工程和商业的看法，以及你最近对此的看法。

Charlie Munger: Well, I don’t like to jump on Boeing.

查理 · 芒格: 嗯，我不喜欢跳上波音飞机。

Boeing is a great company that had one of the great success rates in safety records of the world. They lost their way, they made some dumb mistakes. I think that’s generally the way of things too if you’re trying to do something very complicated with hundreds of thousands of people. Occasionally, there will be slip-up.

波音是一家伟大的公司，在安全记录方面拥有世界上最高的成功率。 他们迷失了方向，犯了一些愚蠢的错误。 我认为，如果你想和成千上万的人一起做一些非常复杂的事情，这也是一般情况下的做法。 偶尔也会有疏忽。

In most places, if you actually look at them, they have some near-misses. Boeing had a near-miss a few years ago when the rudder stuff failed and they had a few crashes. I was on the Safety Committee at US Air when that happened and nobody could figure it out for months. Something in the rudder was not working, and it caused three crashes. It took them something like six months to figure it out and they must’ve put an army on it.

在大多数地方，如果你仔细观察它们，你会发现它们有一些差点失败的地方。 几年前，波音公司差点失去了方向舵，导致了一些事故。 这件事发生的时候，我正在美国航空公司的安全委员会工作，几个月来没有人知道这件事。 方向舵出了毛病，造成了三次事故。 他们花了大概六个月的时间才弄明白，而且他们肯定派了一支军队在上面。

Well they survived that one and they’ll no doubt survive this one but it’s really expensive to make a big safety mistake. Of course, they should be avoided.

他们挺过了那一关，毫无疑问他们也会挺过这一关，但是犯一个大的安全错误代价太高了。 当然，它们应该被避免。

Question: It’s been a while since you’ve had “The Psychology of Human Misjudgment” as a talk and I was wondering if there was any additions you would have that you’ve seen more recently. And the second part is, you’ve talked about how important being rational is throughout your life. Can you walk us through, aside from the tricks and tips that you have, what steps we can take to become more rational?

问: 你已经有一段时间没有听过“人类错误判断的心理学”这个讲座了，我想知道你最近有没有看到什么新的内容。 第二部分是，你已经说过在你的一生中理性是多么的重要。 你能告诉我们，除了你的技巧和窍门，我们还能采取什么步骤来变得更加理性？

Charlie Munger: Well, it’s a long process. I don’t think anybody just flashes into it. It’s not like somebody’s going to tell you to run down to the front of the revival meeting and shout out and you get a wonderful hereafter.

查理 · 芒格: 嗯，这是一个漫长的过程。 我觉得不是每个人都会一闪而过。 这不像是有人会告诉你跑到复兴会的前面，大声喊出来，然后你就会得到一个美好的未来。

Rationality is something you get slowly and it has a variable result. But it’s better than not having it.

理性是你慢慢得到的东西，它有一个可变的结果。 但这总比没有好。

You can just see how awful it is when people get into these furies of resentment and anger and being sure they’re right about everything. It’s hard to know exactly how human civilization ought to be organized.

你可以看到，当人们陷入怨恨和愤怒的愤怒之中，并且确信自己所做的一切都是正确的时候，情况是多么糟糕。 很难确切地知道人类文明应该如何组织。

In my own life, I’ve often reflected about how well the system has worked. What I concluded was the social safety network has just come up enormously as the world has gotten more prosperous. That was a very desirable thing, and the Republicans who always opposed it were wrong.

在我自己的生活中，我经常反思这个系统是如何运作的。 我得出的结论是，随着世界变得更加繁荣，社会安全网络刚刚得到了巨大的发展。 这是一件非常值得期待的事情，而那些一直反对它的共和党人是错误的。

The Democrats have always tried to push the social welfare too far ahead as they did for a while with the welfare program. That was also wrong.

民主党总是试图把社会福利推得太远，就像他们曾经在福利计划上做的那样。 这也是错误的。

By and large, what we have is about right. We wouldn’t have gotten it from either party alone. If either party had been in total control of a one-party government, we wouldn’t have had the result that we have. It’s just close to right.

总的来说，我们所拥有的基本上是正确的。 我们不可能单独从任何一方得到它。 如果任何一方都完全控制一党政府，我们就不会有现在这样的结果。 只是接近正确。

I think power does corrupt. Part of the genius of the American system is no one person gets too much power. If either party had all the power, I don’t think American civilization would have worked as well as it had with this ebb and flow.

我认为权力是腐败的。 美国体制的天才之处在于，没有人能够获得太多的权力。 如果任何一个政党都拥有所有的权力，我认为美国文明不会像现在这样潮起潮落。

I don’t know what the exact right safety net is. I don’t think it matters that much. I think the United States would be about as happy if it had 5% more or 5% less safety net.

我不知道确切的安全网是什么。 我不认为这很重要。 我认为，如果美国的社会保障网络增加5% 或减少5% ，它也会同样高兴。

Question: Could you elaborate a little bit on project Haven. What are you specifically doing to improve health care, lower the costs, and improve quality and access?

问: 你能详细说明一下港湾计划吗。 你具体做了什么来改善医疗保健，降低成本，提高质量和获取途径？

Charlie Munger: That’s a very interesting subject. If you take American healthcare, in many cases it’s the best in the whole world. We have more brains in our medical schools and our pharmaceutical companies than the rest of the world per capita. We may have as much brains as the rest of the world together.

查理 · 芒格: 这是一个非常有趣的话题。 如果你看看美国的医疗保健，在很多情况下，它是全世界最好的。 我们的医学院和制药公司拥有的人才数量，比世界其他地区的人均数量还要多。 我们的大脑可能和世界上其他人的一样多。

On the other hand, if you actually went into American hospital’s doctor’s offices, you would find a huge amount of totally counterproductive, unnecessary activity that costs a lot, does no good, and actually does harm.

另一方面，如果你真的走进美国医院的医生办公室，你会发现大量的完全适得其反的、不必要的活动，这些活动花费很多，没有好处，而且实际上有害。

And you’d find that some people are not doing that. Well, if they don’t have the incentives to make money by doing it, you don’t get a lot of counterproductive medical care.

你会发现有些人并没有这样做。 好吧，如果他们没有通过这样做来赚钱的动机，你就不会得到很多适得其反的医疗保健。

Kaiser, here in California, does not do a lot of unnecessary, stupid medical care for a long death to make more money and do all the evil things that other people do.

在加利福尼亚，凯撒并没有做很多不必要的，愚蠢的医疗护理，为了长期的死亡来赚更多的钱和做其他人做的所有邪恶的事情。

Other people, as the hospitals and doctors get under pressure, introduce a lot of waste and folly, and some of the pharmaceutical companies’ behavior is totally outrageous.

另外一些人，在医院和医生面临压力的时候，制造了大量的浪费和愚蠢的行为，一些制药公司的行为是完全无法容忍的。

Have some basic diabetes drug and try and charge someone ten thousand a month or something is ridiculous. And I even go further, I think it’s evil. I think that the system should be changed and I think it will be changed. I think there’s too much wretched excess in the medical system.

有一些基本的糖尿病药物，并试图收取某人一万美元一个月或东西是荒谬的。 我甚至更进一步，我认为这是邪恶的。 我认为这个制度应该改变，我认为它将会改变。 我认为医疗系统中有太多可怜的过剩。

The really sad part of it is that the people who are doing it have no conscious malevolence. They’re not people who decided to do murders and maimings to make money. They think it’s good for the patients what they’re doing.

真正可悲的是，这么做的人并没有恶意。 他们不是为了赚钱而杀人致残的人。 他们认为他们所做的对病人有好处。

If you do an unnecessary back operation on somebody, it’s a major evil but the guy that’s doing it really think it’s good for the patient. In other words, he’s turned his brain into cabbage. That’s not a good thing. I think you have to change the incentives.

如果你给某人做了一个不必要的背部手术，这是一个很大的罪恶，但是做这个手术的人真的认为这对病人有好处。 换句话说，他把自己的大脑变成了白菜。 这可不是什么好事。 我认为你必须改变激励机制。

I think there are places in America that are very admirable that don’t a lot of unnecessary stuff, and other places that do. I think we’re going to have to change the system.

我认为美国有些地方是非常令人钦佩的，它们没有很多不必要的东西，而其他地方却有。 我认为我们必须改变这个系统。

If you take the medical system of Singapore, it costs 20% what ours cost, and it has better statistics. It’s not opaque, it’s open.

如果你拿新加坡的医疗系统来说，它的成本是我们的20% ，而且它有更好的统计数据。 它不是不透明的，它是开放的。

We have a whole industry that try to make things payment things opaque so they can try and take advantage of people. And they think it’s free enterprise. I think it’s stealing.

我们有一个整体的行业，试图使事情的支付不透明，以便他们可以尝试和利用人。 他们认为这是自由企业。 我觉得这是偷窃。

Question: One of the things that has surprised me is how many of my peers in the financial industry have sat out the market over the last five years holding cash in anticipation of a market downturn. I would think, given that we’re in our late 20s, we’ve accumulated savings, and have what’s hopefully a multi-decade runway ahead of us, the right thing to do was be to start investing now. So my question is whether you would agree with this assessment, and if so, how would you convince your friends to start investing? Thank you.

问: 让我感到惊讶的一件事是，在过去的五年里，我的许多金融业同行在预期市场低迷的情况下持有现金，却袖手旁观。 我认为，考虑到我们已经接近30岁，我们已经积累了很多储蓄，并且有希望在未来的几十年里，我们应该做的正确的事情是现在就开始投资。 所以我的问题是你是否会同意这个评估，如果是的话，你将如何说服你的朋友开始投资？ 谢谢你。

Charlie Munger: Well, it’s obvious that deferred gratifiers do better over the long pull than these impulsive children that have to spend money on Rolex watches and some other folly. Not that I’m picking Rolex any worse than a Phillipe or something.

查理 · 芒格: 很明显，比起那些冲动的孩子，那些花钱买劳力士手表和其他一些愚蠢的东西的孩子，那些延迟满足的孩子在长期吸引力方面做得更好。 并不是说我选的劳力士比菲利普的还差。

But I think everybody who is adult should save and not be stupidly spending money and defer gratification to get more later and all those good things that we were taught by Benjamin Franklin - three of them so forth.

但是我认为每个成年人都应该存钱，而不是愚蠢地花钱，推迟享受以后得到更多的东西，以及我们从本杰明·富兰克林那里学到的所有美好的东西——其中3个如此等等。

The odd thing about it is that people are kind of born deferred gratifiers or not. They’ve done recent psychological work on that subject. Lots of luck if you’re an impulsive person who has to be gratified immediately. You’re probably not going to have a very good life and we can’t fix you.

奇怪的是，人们天生就是延迟的满足者，或者不是。 他们最近在这个问题上进行了心理学研究。 如果你是一个冲动的人，必须马上得到满足，那就太幸运了。 你可能不会有一个很好的生活，我们不能修复你。

But if you have a slight tendency to deferred gratification and you can feed that tendency, then you’re on your way to prosperity and happiness.

但是如果你有一点推迟满足的倾向，并且你能够满足这种倾向，那么你就在通往成功和幸福的道路上了。

That demand for immediate gratification is the way to ruin. It may also give you syphilis.

这种对即时满足的需求是毁灭之路。 它也可能给你带来梅毒。

---

Evidently, they have a saying: “Give him the hook”. My friend Guering has just given me the hook.

显然，他们有一句谚语: “把钩子给他”。 我的朋友古林刚刚给了我一个机会。

I am an accidental guru. We didn’t set out to have an audience of people coming in and asking me questions about every damn subject in the world. It just kind of happened by accident and I just went along with it because I think it did more good than harm and I kind of enjoy it as long as I don’t have to do it too often.

我是一个偶然的古鲁。 我们并没有打算让一群观众来问我关于世界上每一个该死的话题的问题。 它只是偶然发生的，我只是顺其自然，因为我认为它带来的好处多于坏处，而且只要我不必经常这样做，我有点喜欢它。

I feel sorry for people who have edge elating multitudes. I also wouldn’t like a normal multitude. I love these nerds.

我为那些拥有优越感的人们感到遗憾。 我也不喜欢一个正常的群体。 我喜欢这些书呆子。

Question: I want to ask you a question about Lee Kuan Yew, particularly his housing policies. I’m curious how you think California should address the insane cost of constructing new development right now and how you would try to create housing in California that would be affordable across all socio-economic areas to avoid the kind of social evils that Lee Kuan Yew has managed to avoid back in Singapore.

问: 我想问你一个关于李光耀的问题，特别是他的住房政策。 我很好奇，你认为加利福尼亚应该如何解决目前建设新开发区的疯狂成本，以及你将如何尝试在加利福尼亚建造所有社会经济地区都能负担得起的住房，以避免李光耀(Lee Kuan Yew)在新加坡设法避免的那种社会弊端。

Charlie Munger: That’s like asking some ordinary clutch who’s drunk if he can’t come up with something like Albert Einstein. You know, it’s just too much.

查理 · 芒格: 这就像是问一个喝醉了的普通离合器，他是否能想出像阿尔伯特 · 爱因斯坦这样的东西。 你知道，这太多了。

Lee Kuan Yew is the best nation-builder that probably ever existed and what he accomplished in Singapore, considering where he started, was a miracle.

李光耀可能是有史以来最优秀的国家建设者，他在新加坡取得的成就，考虑到他的起点，是一个奇迹。

Of course, I don’t know how to create that everywhere.

当然，我不知道如何在任何地方都创造这样的环境。

I’m not sure Lee Kuan Yew could have done it if he didn’t have a bunch of expelled Chinese there. I’m not sure that any other ethnic group would have done it.

如果李光耀没有一群被驱逐的中国人在那里，我不确定他能做到这一点。 我不确定是否有其他种族的人会这么做。

It looked like a terrible hand. By the way, there is an interesting story there. He needed an army when he first took over and nobody would help him. Only one nation in the whole world would help him and that was Israel.

这手牌看起来很糟糕。 顺便说一下，那里有一个有趣的故事。 他刚接手时需要一支军队，没有人愿意帮助他。 全世界只有一个国家愿意帮助他，那就是以色列。

He said: “I’m surrounded by muslims who hate me. How can I accept military advise from Israel?”

他说: “我周围都是恨我的穆斯林。 我怎么能接受以色列的军事劝告呢? ”

He finally figured it out.

他终于弄明白了。

He accepted the help and he told everybody they were Mexicans.

他接受了帮助，告诉所有人他们是墨西哥人。

We’ll on that little joke we’ll end the meeting.

我们要讲那个小笑话，我们要结束会议。